Impeccable Appraisal of the Myanmar Imbroglio

缅媒：对缅甸乱局无可挑剔的评价

作者：拉吉夫·巴塔查里亚           来源：伊洛瓦底江

The Golden Land Ablaze: Coups, Insurgents and the State in Myanmar

金土之火：缅甸的政变、叛乱和国家

Sometime towards the end of 1985, the young Bertil Lintner embarked on an undercover assignment in Myanmar that appears more like fiction than a real journey. He was accompanied by his wife and three-month old daughter, who was born in Kohima when they were hiding to avoid the Indian security forces and waiting for the opportune time to cross the border into Myanmar. And within a couple of weeks in Myanmar came a devastating attack by the junta on a Nagaland rebel base at Challam Basti (Kesan Chanlam) where they were putting up.

1985年底的某个时候，年轻的贝蒂尔·林特纳（Bertil Lintner）在缅甸展开了一项卧底任务，这看起来更像是小说，而不是真实的旅行。他的妻子和三个月大的女儿陪伴着他，她是在科希马出生的，当时他们为了躲避印度安全部队而躲藏起来，等待越境进入缅甸的合适时机。几周之内，缅甸军政府对那加兰邦叛军在查拉姆巴斯蒂（Kesan Chanlam）的基地发动了毁灭性的袭击。

Lintner and his family escaped unscathed, but the episode hastened their onward journey from Sagaing Region to Kachin through an unforgiving terrain and rugged hills. Only after 22 months and traveling 1,800 km did they cross over to China and finally to Thailand, where they live.

林特纳和他的家人毫发无损地逃脱了，但这一事件加速了他们从实皆地区前往克钦的旅程，穿越了崎岖的地形和崎岖的山丘。经过22个月，1800公里的旅行，他们才穿越到中国，最后到达泰国，他们住在那里。

The result of this trek was an epic travelogue titled Land Of Jade: A Journey from India through Northern Burma to China, and a series of revealing and detailed reports in the Far Eastern Economic Review, which operated out of Hong Kong and where Lintner was employed.

这次长途跋涉的结果是一篇史诗般的旅行日志，题为《玉之国：从印度穿越缅甸北部到中国的旅程》，以及林特纳在香港工作的《远东经济评论》（Far Eastern Economic Review）上发表的一系列揭露性和详细的报道。

Lintner’s undercover visit to the conflict zones came on the heels of other covert assignments by journalists that included the daring foray of Gavin Young from the London-based Observer in 1961 to reach the Naga rebel base in Sagaing Region from Yangon. But Lintner’s trek was unparalleled in that it covered a much wider territory, including Kachin and Shan states, more rebel groups battling the junta, and a vast array of topics that were scarcely known to the outside world. This difficult journey provided him with the foundation of the classic books on Myanmar that he eventually wrote—Burma In Revolt: Opium and Insurgency Since 1948, Aung San Suu Kyi and Burma’s Struggle for Democracy, Merchants of Madness: The Methamphetamine Explosion in the Golden Triangle (with Michael Black) and The Rise and Fall of the Communist Party of Burma.

林特纳对冲突地区的秘密访问是在记者的其他秘密任务之后进行的，其中包括1961年伦敦《观察家报》的加文·杨（Gavin Young）大胆地从仰光前往实皆地区的纳加（Naga）叛军基地。但林特纳的长途跋涉是无与伦比的，因为它覆盖了更广泛的领土，包括克钦邦和掸邦，更多与军政府作战的反叛组织，以及大量外界几乎不知道的话题。这段艰难的旅程为他后来写的关于缅甸的经典著作奠定了基础——《反抗中的缅甸：1948年以来的鸦片和叛乱》、《昂山素季和缅甸争取民主的斗争》、《疯狂的商人：金三角地区的冰毒爆炸》（与迈克尔·布莱克合著）和《缅甸共产党的兴衰》。

The latest in this long list is Golden Land Ablaze: Coups, Insurgents and the State in Myanmar on the ongoing Spring Revolution aimed at toppling the junta. The author, as he spells out in the beginning, was motivated to write the book to explain the “enigma of military power in Myanmar” and to give readers a better understanding of the myriad issues crippling the country so that they are not misled by “shallow analyses and wishful thinking.”

这份长长的名单中最新的一本是《金土之火：政变、叛乱分子和缅甸正在进行的旨在推翻军政府的春季革命》。正如作者在开篇所阐述的那样，他写这本书的动机是为了解释“缅甸军事力量的谜团”，让读者更好地了解使这个国家陷入困境的无数问题，以免被“肤浅的分析和一厢情愿的想法”所误导。

This he does through six chapters, beginning with a deep dive into the reasons behind the military coup on Feb. 1, 2021, followed by a meticulous evaluation of the roles of political parties, politicians, Buddhist clergy, and the military, the ethnic conundrum in the country, and finally the future trajectory of the ongoing conflict.

他通过六章来阐述这一点，首先深入探讨了2021年2月1日军事政变背后的原因，然后细致地评估了政党、政治家、佛教僧侣和军队的角色，以及该国的种族难题，最后是正在进行的冲突的未来轨迹。

Many factors distinguish the Spring Revolution from earlier rebellions in Myanmar. In previous decades, it was only ethnic minorities in the peripheral regions that had challenged the central authority. But after the latest coup, almost the entire country rose in revolt to overthrow the military regime, including the Bamar heartland, which the junta had least expected. “An entire generation had learned how to use the internet, to communicate on social media, and to hold workshops and seminars on subjects related to democracy and civil rights,” says Lintner, which contributed to “transformation of Myanmar society” during 2011-21 when the country underwent a period of relative openness and quasi-democratic regimes. Before the coup, about 35.1 percent of the population had access to the internet, which was a sharp increase from less than one percent in 2011.

许多因素将春季革命与缅甸早期的叛乱区分开来。在过去的几十年里，只有边缘地区的少数民族挑战中央权威。但在最近的政变之后，几乎整个国家都奋起反抗，推翻了军事政权，包括缅甸的中心地带，这是军政府最意想不到的。林特纳说：“整整一代人都学会了如何使用互联网，如何在社交媒体上交流，以及如何就与民主和公民权利有关的主题举办讲习班和研讨会。”2011年至2021年期间，缅甸经历了一段相对开放和准民主政权的时期，林特纳为“缅甸社会的转型”做出了贡献。政变前，大约35.1%的人口可以上网，而2011年这一比例还不到1%。

Juxtaposed with the campaign to oust the military regime is what the author calls the “ethnic jigsaw” that had been the cause of continuous conflict over many decades, beginning with the rebellion in the Karen-inhabited region bordering Thailand immediately after Myanmar’s independence. The mistrust between the ethnic minorities and majority Bamar was aggravated with the rejection of the Panglong Agreement by the government, which was preceded by the assassination of Aung Sang and other leaders. Other states inhabited by the Kachin, Chin, Mon, Nagas, and Shan followed suit at different periods. The details of these movements and their characteristics are delineated in a concise and alluring style.

与推翻军政府的运动并列的是作者所说的“民族拼图”，这是几十年来持续冲突的原因，始于缅甸独立后与泰国接壤的克伦人居住地区的叛乱。少数民族和占多数的缅族之间的不信任由于政府拒绝彬龙协议而加剧，在此之前，昂桑和其他领导人被暗杀。克钦、钦、孟、那加斯和掸等其他邦在不同时期也纷纷效仿。这些动作的细节及其特点以简洁而诱人的风格描绘出来。

Recently, China’s clout was demonstrated when it compelled the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to arrive at a truce with the junta against whom it had launched a devastating series of campaigns beginning with Operation 1027 in alliance with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA). China has embedded itself so deeply in Myanmar that it will be able to safeguard its long-term interests in the country irrespective of the outcome of the Spring Revolution.

最近，中国的影响力得到了体现，它迫使缅甸民族民主联盟军（MNDAA）与军政府达成停火协议。从“1027行动”（Operation 1027）开始，中国与塔唐民族解放军（TNLA）和阿拉干军（AA）联合发起了一系列毁灭性的战役。中国已经深深扎根于缅甸，因此无论春季革命的结果如何，中国都有能力维护自己在缅甸的长期利益。

And how did China manage to strike the balance? In one of his most revealing chapters, Lintner explains that China has a “peculiar foreign policy” that distinguishes between “government-to-government” and “party-to-party” relations, enabling Beijing to leverage linkages with both the Myanmar military and ethnic armed organisations. “Both the warring sides are benefitting from the supply of military hardware from China,” he writes, and explains how Myanmar is dependent on its neighbor for trade and diplomatic protection in the UN against sanctions by Western powers.

中国是如何做到平衡的？在书中最发人深省的一章中，林特纳解释说，中国有一种“特殊的外交政策”，区分了“政府对政府”和“党对党”关系，使北京方面能够利用与缅甸军方和少数民族武装组织的联系。“交战双方都从中国的军事装备供应中受益，”他写道，并解释了缅甸如何依赖其邻国在联合国的贸易和外交保护，以对抗西方大国的制裁。

China’s ultimate objective is the early completion of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which will provide it with vital access to the Indian Ocean and carries a high risk of fuelling conflict with other powers. The possibility of Myanmar being entangled in a geopolitical storm in the near future cannot be ruled out.

中国的最终目标是早日完成中缅经济走廊（CMEC），这将为中国提供通往印度洋的重要通道，同时也极有可能加剧与其他大国的冲突。不能排除缅甸在不久的将来卷入地缘政治风暴的可能性。

The roles of other countries in Myanmar pale into insignificance. For India, Myanmar’s other big neighbour, three factors have determined its policy towards the country—China’s dominance, the “Act East” policy, and the camps and training facilities of separatist outfits from the country’s northeastern region. A critical evaluation of the policy over the last few decades certainly points to the conclusion that it has failed. The major projects associated with “Act East” policy are in limbo; the presence of the separatist groups continues; and the junta is increasingly tilting towards China. Among these three factors, Lintner is of the view that there is a greater possibility of the “China factor” determining India’s policy, and that India is unlikely to replace China as the country’s main ally, while the “Act East” policy will remain a “minor undertaking” compared to China’s CMEC. Likewise, the roles of the UN, U.S., ASEAN, and Russia remain peripheral.

其他国家在缅甸的角色显得微不足道。对于缅甸的另一个大邻国印度来说，三个因素决定了它对缅甸的政策——中国的主导地位，“向东行动”政策，以及缅甸东北部地区分离主义组织的营地和训练设施。对过去几十年这项政策的批判性评估肯定会得出这样的结论：它已经失败了。与“向东行动”政策相关的重大项目处于不确定状态；分离主义团体继续存在；缅甸军政府正日益向中国倾斜。在这三个因素中，林特纳认为，“中国因素”决定印度政策的可能性更大，印度不太可能取代中国成为印度的主要盟友，而与中国的CMEC相比，“向东行动”政策仍将是一项“小事业”。同样，联合国、美国、东盟和俄罗斯的作用仍然是次要的。

And what will be the outcome of the Spring Revolution? “Resistance is everywhere,” writes Lintner, “genuine and homegrown.” This was amply demonstrated in the conflict hotspots that I visited during 2023-24 in Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State. There are differences across these zones, but it is undeniable that revolutionaries have the common agenda of uprooting the military regime. Currently, the junta has effective control of only about 30-40 percent of the country, with almost the entire periphery being lost to resistance groups. But the challenge for the resistance lies in defeating the junta in that 30-40 percent of territory comprising primarily the Bamar heartland.

春天革命的结果会怎样呢？“抵抗无处不在，”林特纳写道，“真实而土生土长。”我在2023年至2024年期间访问的实皆地区、钦邦和若开邦的冲突热点充分证明了这一点。这些地区之间存在差异，但不可否认的是，革命者有一个共同的议程，那就是将军事政权连根拔起。目前，军政府实际上只控制了全国大约30- 40%的地区，几乎整个周边地区都被抵抗组织占领。但是，抵抗运动面临的挑战在于如何在主要由缅族中心地带组成的30- 40%的领土上击败军政府。

The weaknesses of the resistance stem from its disunity and lack of sophisticated weaponry to dislodge the military regime. So, as Lintner asserts, nothing will change unless there is a widespread mutiny within the ranks of the military itself. Such an event has never been witnessed in the country, despite severe challenges to the military in the 1960s and 70s. “This is a war that neither side can win by military means,” he concludes, “and caught in the middle is the civilian population, which is bound to suffer the most.”

抵抗运动的弱点源于其不团结和缺乏先进的武器来推翻军事政权。因此，正如林特纳所断言的那样，除非军队内部发生广泛的兵变，否则一切都不会改变。尽管20世纪60年代和70年代军队面临严峻挑战，但这种事件在该国从未发生过。“这是一场双方都不可能通过军事手段取胜的战争，”他总结道，“夹在中间的是平民，他们必然是受害最深的。”

With such incisive analysis and vast detail, the book could have done well with a few maps for readers who are not well acquainted with the country’s geographical contours. Likewise, a few photographs would have helped establish a better connection between the country’s past and present. These minor drawbacks notwithstanding, the book is a precious contribution to understanding Myanmar for researchers, policy planners, journalists, and anybody else wishing to gain an objective overview of the ongoing Spring Revolution.

有了如此精辟的分析和大量的细节，对于不太熟悉这个国家地理轮廓的读者来说，这本书如果加上几张地图就好了。同样，如果有几张照片，就能更好地将这个国家的过去和现在联系起来。尽管存在这些小缺点，这本书对于研究人员、政策制定者、记者和任何希望客观了解正在进行的春季革命的人来说，都是对了解缅甸的宝贵贡献。

 Rajeev Bhattacharyya is a senior journalist and author in Assam in India’s Northeast.

拉吉夫·巴塔查里亚是印度东北部阿萨姆邦的资深记者和作家。

作者：拉吉夫·巴塔查里亚           来源：伊洛瓦底江