经济学人：中国新北极航线的前景与挑战

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊

FOR A WORLD newly preoccupied with maritime choke points, the voyage of the Dubai Tower offers a flicker of promise. The container ship set off from the Chinese port of Ningbo on August 15th to begin the first regular cargo service between Asia and Europe via the Arctic Ocean. Sea Legend, the vessel’s Chinese owner, says that it will complete the 5,000km journey to Felixstowe, on Britain’s east coast, in about 20 days. That is roughly twice as fast as sailing the usual route via the Suez Canal. Crucially, the “Arctic Express” (as the company calls the service) avoids the risk of being entangled in the Middle East’s military conflicts.

如今，全球都高度关注海上航运的咽喉要道，而“迪拜塔”号（Dubai Tower）的这次航行，带来了一丝新希望。 8月15日，这艘货船从中国宁波港启航，开通亚洲与欧洲之间首条经北冰洋的常态化货运航线。该船的船东、中国企业 Sea Legend 表示，“迪拜塔” 号将用大约 20 天完成5000公里的航程，抵达英国东海岸的费利克斯托港。航行耗时大约只有苏伊士运河传统航线的一半。更重要的是，这条被该公司称作 “北极快线” 的航线，能够避开卷入中东军事冲突的风险。

the new service via the so-called Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs through the Bering Strait and over the top of Russia, is an early test of China’s Arctic ambitions. In 2018 the country outlined plans to develop shipping routes, mining and infrastructure in the Arctic, hoping to take advantage of rapidly receding polar ice. Many of the plans, which are marketed collectively as a “polar silk road”, have met resistance. Seven of the eight countries with Arctic territory are Western democracies. They worry that China is working closely with Russia in the region and that Chinese activities there could be useful for future military purposes, such as operating submarines. Some bridled at China, whose northernmost point is on about the same latitude as Hamburg, declaring itself a “near-Arctic state”.

这条所谓的 “北方海航道”（NSR）的新航线，是东大北极战略雄心的一次早期检验。该航道穿过白令海峡，沿着俄罗斯大陆北端穿行。2018 年，东大公布计划，要在北极开发航运线路、矿产开采与基础设施，希望利用极地海冰快速消融的机遇获益。这些被称作 “冰上丝绸之路” 的多项计划，遭遇了不小的阻力。拥有北极领土的八个国家里，七个属于西方民主国家。它们担忧东大在该地区与俄罗斯密切合作，东大在当地的各类活动未来可服务于军事用途，例如开展潜艇相关活动。部分国家对东大自称 “近北极国家” 感到不满 因为中国国土最北端，纬度大致和德国汉堡相当。

Nonetheless China hopes to attract fresh interest in the northern route from governments and companies alarmed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the threat from Iranian-backed Houthi fighters to shipping in the Red Sea. China is also more anxious than ever about its own reliance on the narrow Malacca Strait, the hinge between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, through which most of its energy imports pass. And China will soon not be alone on the NSR. In June Japan said that it would revise its Arctic policy to promote the route. A South Korean shipping company, PanStar, plans to send one of its container ships on a trial run through the Arctic Ocean on August 22nd, aiming to complete the voyage from Busan to Felixstowe in just 18 days.

尽管如此，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭、以及伊朗支持的胡塞武装对红海航运造成的威胁，令多国企业心生警惕，东大希望借此让各方重新对北方航线产生兴趣。与此同时，东大比以往任何时候都更为担忧自己对狭窄的马六甲海峡的依赖。马六甲海峡是连通印度洋与太平洋的枢纽，东大绝大部分进口能源都要经由这里运输。而且，东大很快就不会是北方海航道上唯一的参与者。今年 6 月，日本称将修订北极政策，推广这条航线。韩国航运企业 PanStar 计划在 8 月 22 日派遣一艘集装箱船开展北冰洋试航，力争仅用 18 天完成从釜山到英国费利克斯托港的航行。

Thanks to climate change, conditions for the NSR are likely to grow more favourable. The minimum summer extent of Arctic ice has been shrinking by more than 12% a decade. In March the maximum extent of winter ice reached its lowest level since records began in 1979. On August 16th, the latest available reading, Arctic ice covered 5.5m square kilometres. That is well below the median extent of ice on the same date in the years between 1981 and 2010 but above the lowest ever extent, recorded in 2012. That September, the ice shrank to just 3.4m square kilometres.

得益于气候变化，北方海航道的通行条件有望变得更加有利。北极海冰夏季最小覆盖面积正以每十年超 12% 的幅度缩减。今年 3 月，冬季海冰达到年度最大覆盖范围，该数值创下 1979 年有观测记录以来的最低水平。8月16日的最新观测数据显示，北极海冰覆盖面积为 550 万平方公里。该数值远低于 1981 2010 年同期海冰面积的中位值，但高于 2012 年创下的历史最低值；当年 9 月，海冰面积曾萎缩至仅 340 万平方公里。

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊