经济学人：中国严厉打击违反规则的境外投资

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊

SOUNDWILL PLAZA in Hong Kong used to host a restaurant dedicated to the Transformers film franchise. The burger buns were stamped with robot faces and the gift shop featured a towering model of Optimus Prime (a robot that can transform into a lorry) striding through a portal. Last year, however, fast food gave way to fast finance. The site was taken over by Futu Securities, a tech-savvy brokerage with over 3.5m clients. Futu boasts it can open a new account in as little as three minutes—about the time it takes to flip a burger.

以前在香港铜锣湾金朝阳中心，有一家变形金刚主题的特色餐厅。餐厅内的汉堡胚都印着汽车人头像。在旁边的纪念品商店里，有一尊擎天柱迈步跨越传送门的雕像，场面十分震撼。但去年，这家特色餐厅悄然关门，取而代之的是主打极速服务的互联网线上券商富途证券。这家数字化券商坐拥有超350万客户，宣传亮点就是三分钟即可完成开户流程。三分钟差不多等同于煎制一块汉堡的时间。

When the flagship store opened in August, Futu was doing a lorry-load of business. But some of its client accounts have drawn the ire of the authorities in China, which maintains strict capital controls. In May they accused Futu and several similar brokers of offering services on the mainland without a licence. Futu faces a fine of some $271m and must close illegal accounts in two years. The price of its shares, listed on America’s Nasdaq Exchange, is down by a fifth since May 21st.

去年8月，富途证券线下店刚开业开业，业务就迎来爆发式增长。但内地实施严格资本跨境管控，富途部分客户账户引发监管部门强烈不满。今年5月，监管机构认定富途与多家同类券商，在未取得内地牌照的情况下违规向内地用户提供证券服务。富途将面临约2.71亿美元罚款，并需在两年内清退全部违规账户。富途股价自5月21日至今，累计跌幅达两成。

The timing of the crackdown was unusual. In the past regulators have tightened capital controls when China’s exchange rate was looking wobbly. But the yuan has been one of the best-performing currencies in Asia over the past year (see chart). Its rise could erode the competitiveness of China’s exports, which have been propping up the economy’s growth. Capital outflows, which were large in March, have relieved that pressure on the currency. The crackdown will instead add to it.

此番监管整治落地的时间点十分反常。以往每当人民币汇率走势疲软时，监管层便会收紧跨境资本管控。但过去一年人民币却是亚洲表现最为坚挺的货币之一（附图）。人民币持续走强会侵蚀国内出口商品的竞争力，而出口始终是拉动国内经济增长的支柱。 3 月曾出现大规模资本外流，一定程度上缓和了人民币升值带来的压力，而本次监管整治反而会加剧该升值压力。

Regulators may fear they have no choice. China’s balance of payments may not always be as robust as it looks now. Higher prices for imported semiconductors are already eating into its trade surpluses. America’s Federal Reserve, under new management, is expected to raise interest rates at least once this year; China’s central bank might still have to cut.

监管机构或许觉得自身别无选择。中国当前国际收支看似稳健，但这种局面难以长期维持。进口半导体涨价，已持续压缩我国贸易顺差。美联储迎来新任主席，市场预期其年内至少再度加息一次；反观中国央行，或仍有降息空间。

In a speech in Shanghai, Zhu Hexin of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange observed that capital flows have become more volatile. Investors’ money is also crowding in “future industries” like artificial intelligence and biomanufacturing, following a “tech narrative”. The government, he said, wants to ensure capital serves the “real” economy “while safeguarding the bottom line of security”.

国家外汇管理局朱鹤新在上海一场发言中提到，当下跨境资本流动波动显著加剧。市场资金受科技投资逻辑驱动，纷纷涌入人工智能、生物制造等未来产业。他表示，政府一方面要引导资本赋能实体经济，另一方面也要牢牢守住金融安全底线。

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊