经济学人：40年制裁体系，开始瓦解了

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊

IRAN’S FOOTBALL team is having an unexpectedly good World Cup. On June 21st it held Belgium, ranked ninth in the world, to a draw in Los Angeles, leaving it within reach of the knockout stages. Over in Switzerland, Iranian negotiators are scoring even bigger wins. On June 22nd the Treasury Department, upending four decades of American policy, issued a sanctions waiver permitting the production, sale and delivery of Iranian petroleum for 60 days. The move will bring instant relief to the Iranian regime, and it could over time make Iran rich again.

伊朗足球队在本届世界杯大放异彩，战绩远超外界预期。6月21在洛杉矶赛场，伊朗队逼平世界第九的比利时，晋级淘汰赛的希望近在咫尺。球场之外，远在瑞士斡旋谈判的伊朗外交人员，收获的成果更为重磅。6月22日，美国财政部一改延续四十余年的对伊既定方针，出台一项制裁临时豁免令：准许伊朗在六十天时限内开展石油开采、外销与运输全流程业务。此番举措立刻纾解伊朗当局当下的困局，长此以往，更有望让伊朗再度坐拥丰厚财力。

America banned its firms from buying Iranian oil in 1980 in response to the hostage crisis in its embassy in Tehran the previous year. That embargo was supplemented in the early 2010s by “secondary” sanctions exposing other buyers to American penalties. Those were suspended under Barack Obama’s nuclear deal of 2015, then reimposed, in harsher form, when Donald Trump tore up the pact three years later.

1979年，德黑兰人质危机爆发，美国出台禁令，禁止本国企业采购伊朗原油，以此作为反制。 2010年初，美方又加码出台 “次级制裁”，将惩戒范围延伸至第三方交易方：但凡与伊朗开展石油贸易的海外企业，均会面临美国的处罚。 2015年，奥巴马政府签署伊核协议后，这套制裁机制一度暂停执行；可三年后，特朗普单方面退出该协议，不仅重启制裁，还大幅加码，推出更为严苛的限制条款。

The latest waiver goes much further than any previous relief. An earlier one, issued by Mr Trump while war between the countries raged, covered only Iranian oil already loaded on ships. Licences granted to third countries under Mr Obama required them to keep cutting purchases, which drove exports down from 2.5m barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 1.5m in 2012. Even Mr Obama’s nuclear deal lifted only secondary sanctions. Mr Trump’s new licence imposes none of those constraints. American refiners may now buy Persian petroleum directly, pay for it in dollars and receive it from blacklisted tankers—rolling back, temporarily, the original embargo from 1979.

本次出台的豁免政策，宽松远超以往任何一轮临时放宽措施。 此前特朗普政府在美伊冲突白热化阶段推出过短期豁免，但仅允许已完成装船的伊朗原油完成交割；奥巴马时期向第三方国家发放的采购配额，则附带逐年削减进口量的硬性要求，也正是这一政策，令伊朗原油日出口量从 2011 年 250 万桶跌至 2012 年 150 万桶。 即便奥巴马签署的伊核全面协议，也仅暂停了针对第三方的次级制裁。而特朗普此次签发的全新许可，完全取消了过往所有约束条款。 美国炼油企业如今可直接采购波斯原油、以美元结算，还能接收遭制裁油轮承运的货物。这项举措相当于阶段性搁置1979年出台的原始石油禁运令，临时放宽长达数十年的对伊石油封锁。

As for keeping Hormuz open, the sanctions relief looks unlikely to achieve the clarity America hopes for. Days after Mr Trump signed the preliminary deal with his Iranian counterpart on June 17th, Iran declared the strait closed again. Non-Iranian traffic—which had begun rising after the signing—immediately paused, even as Iranian shipments increased. It now appears to be rising again, but so are tensions between America and Iran. In the longer run fears linger that Iran will seek to impose a toll on Hormuz crossings, which would constrict traffic. On June 22nd it said it would “administer” the waterway and set up a “telephone hotline” to co-ordinate the passage of ships.

至于霍尔木兹海峡通航畅通，此番放宽制裁举措恐怕难以达成美方期待的清晰稳定局面。 6月17日，特朗普与伊朗高层签署初步协议短短数日后，伊朗再度宣布封锁海峡。协议签署后刚有所回升的外籍船舶通航量立刻陷入停滞，反观伊朗本国航运出货量却持续走高。 如今海峡通航量虽再度回升，但美伊两国紧张关系也同步升温。长远来看，市场仍存隐忧：伊朗或将对所有穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船舶征收通行费，此举会直接制约航道通行规模。 6月22日，伊朗方面表态，将对这片水道实施管控，并开通专线电话，统筹协调各类船舶过境事宜。

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊