经济学人：伊朗没倒下，以色列彻底被美国抛下

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊

ON FEBRUARY 28TH hundreds of American and Israeli warplanes took off simultaneously to launch the opening salvo of their war on Iran. For 40 days the two allies’ military partnership was intense and close. But as Donald Trump and Iran’s leaders this week reached an agreement that would extend the ceasefire and bring their war to an end, the nature of that partnership has shifted. Israel has been shut out of the negotiations with Iran. Judging by the details of the accord (Israel hasn’t received a copy) that have emerged so far, it deals with few if any of Israel’s concerns.

2月28日，数百架美以战机同步升空，打响两国对伊朗作战的第一波攻势。四十天里，这两个盟友的军事协作紧密无间。但本周唐纳德・特朗普与伊朗领导人达成一份协议，计划延长停火、彻底终结这场战争，美以双方的同盟关系也随之发生转变。以色列被排除在了美伊谈判之外。从目前外泄的协议细节（以色列尚未拿到协议副本）来看，这份协定几乎没有回应以色列的各项核心关切。

The outcome for Israel is, as one of the country’s diplomats in Jerusalem describes it, “a glorious failure”. It is also a personal blow to Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu. He has invested enormous political capital in convincing America’s president that a war with Iran could fundamentally change the situation in the Middle East for the better, perhaps even topple the Islamic Republic’s regime. In a press conference with the Israeli media on June 15th he claimed that the war had been a success and that “we saved Israel from the threat of nuclear annihilation.” He avoided, however, the subject of Mr Trump’s deal with Iran.

一名驻耶路撒冷的以色列外交官直言，这对以色列是一场 “看似风光的惨败”。这场外交挫败重创了本雅明・内塔尼亚胡本人。此前，内塔尼亚胡耗费大量政治声望游说美国总统，声称对伊朗开战能彻底扭转中东格局，甚至有望推翻伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权。6月15日，他在面向本国媒体的记者会上坚称这场军事行动大获全胜，宣称 “我们让以色列免于遭到核灭顶之灾的威胁”。 但整场发布会，他始终回避谈及特朗普与伊朗达成停战协议。

Despite Mr Netanyahu’s claims, and the significant damage inflicted on Iran, the regime remains standing. Hardliners have been empowered. The deal due to be signed on June 19th in Geneva does not immediately address Iran’s nuclear programme, Israel’s greatest concern. It will be the subject of talks that are to continue over the next 60 days. There is no guarantee that these talks will be conclusive; they could plausibly be extended time and again. Iran retains the capability to fire ballistic missiles at Israel, the rest of the Middle East and beyond. The agreement with America is not expected to refer to Iran’s ballistic-missile programme at all

尽管内塔尼亚胡大肆宣扬战果，伊朗也确实遭受了沉重打击，但伊朗根基未损，国内强硬派势力反而进一步壮大。 这份定于6月19日在日内瓦签署的协议，并未立刻解决以色列最关切的伊朗核计划问题，该议题将留待后续60天的谈判持续磋商。目前无法保证后续谈判能达成一锤定音的成果，谈判进程很可能多次延期。伊朗依旧具备向以色列、中东全境乃至更远区域发射弹道导弹的能力，而美伊双方达成的这份协议，据称完全不会涉及伊朗弹道导弹项目相关内容。

More fundamentally, the respective goals of Israel and America in Iran have become less aligned. A few voices in Israel’s defence and intelligence establishment warned their generals of this discrepancy in the first days of the war. They suggested that Israel must be more realistic about its aims. But their bosses were swept away by the success of early air strikes and supported Mr Netanyahu through 40 days of war. Then Mr Trump called time. And since then Israel has been left out in the cold.

 更深层的矛盾在于，美、以两国针对伊朗的战略目标早已渐行渐远。 开战之初，以色列国防与情报圈层的多名内部人士就向军方将领警示过这种战略落差，建议以色列应当务实调整自身诉求。但一众高层被首轮空袭的战果冲昏判断，在长达 40 天的战事中始终对内塔尼亚胡表示支持。 直至特朗普宣布终止军事行动，自此以色列便遭到美方冷遇，被彻底排挤在谈判之外。

Confronting Iran has been Mr Netanyahu’s idée fixe for many years. He has led Israel twice into wars with that intention. Although these campaigns caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear and missiles programmes, that could well prove temporary. Israel has failed to achieve its strategic goals. It has damaged its crucial ties with America, as well as its relations with Arab countries that regarded it as an ally against Iran.

 多年来，对抗伊朗始终是内塔尼亚胡根深蒂固的核心诉求。为达成这一目标，他两度将以色列拖入战事。 虽然数次军事打击重创了伊朗核项目与导弹研发计划，但这类破坏效果大概率只是短期的。以色列最终未能达成自身战略目标，反倒破坏了和美国至关重要的同盟纽带，同时疏远了一众阿拉伯国家 —— 这些国家原本视以色列为制衡伊朗的合作伙伴。

作者：经济学人      来源：一天一篇外刊