经济学人：美国终于认清了未来战争谁说了算

作者：经济学人       来源：一天一篇外刊

THE IRAN war may end up teaching America many lessons. One that it has learned the hard way is the woeful economics of using traditional weaponry against cheap Iranian drones. “The dynamics of the world have changed,” says Emil Michael, a former Silicon Valley executive who is now a senior official in the Pentagon. “You don’t want to spend a $1m missile to take out a $50,000 drone.”

美伊军事冲突，或将给美国带来诸多深刻教训。其中一个付出惨痛代价并认清现实的是：动用传统高精尖武器对抗伊朗低成本无人机，在成本核算上完全得不偿失。前硅谷高管、现任五角大楼高级官员埃米尔?迈克尔表示：“现代战争形式已然改变。用百万美元的导弹，摧毁价值五万美元的无人机，显然极不划算。”

That is one reason why the Trump administration is turning to a new clique of defence upstarts that are reimagining how to wage war. They are led by Palantir, a software giant providing intelligence systems; SpaceX, whose Starshield satellite network provides reconnaissance and connectivity; and Anduril, an up-and-coming favourite that makes air and sea drones alongside anti-drone weaponry. This trio of so-called “neo-primes” have close ties with gung-ho figures in the Trump administration. And they are making the giants of the military-industrial complex increasingly nervous.

这也是特朗普政府转而扶持一众国防领域新兴科技巨头的原因。这些新兴公司正在重新定义现代作战模式。领头的是帕兰提尔，这家软件巨头为军方提供情报系统；还有SpaceX，其“星盾”卫星网络提供侦察和通信支持；以及势头正猛的安杜里尔，这家公司生产空中和海上无人机，也制造反无人机武器。这三家所谓的“新军工主承包商”，与美国本届政府中一些鹰派人物关系密切。它们的崛起，也正让传统军工巨头企业越来越不安。

America’s legacy “prime” contractors have, in the government’s telling, grown stodgy, overpriced and risk-averse as a result of their lucrative sinecures. “If the [newcomers] are good and they get their sea legs, they’re going to win some of that business that otherwise would have gone through a traditional prime,” Mr Michael says.

美国政府认为，老牌军工主承包商靠着长期稳定的军工订单过得十分安逸，经营模式僵化，定价偏高，行事也愈发保守。迈克尔表示：“一旦这些新兴企业成长起来、站稳脚跟，就能分得一部分原本由传统主承包商包揽的业务。”

This year the challengers have won some big endorsements. In January Pete Hegseth, America’s secretary of war, used SpaceX’s base in Texas as the backdrop to release a new artificial-intelligence strategy, promising that the Department of War (DoW) would draw inspiration from Elon Musk’s management approach and “accelerate like hell”. In March it said Palantir’s AI-infused command-and-control system, called Maven, would become a “programme of record”, locking in funding for years ahead (albeit with a good deal of red tape). In the same month America’s army streamlined multiple contractors with Anduril into a single one worth up to $20bn over ten years.

今年，这些新兴挑战者接连获得多项重磅官方支持。1月，美国高层防务官员在 SpaceX 得州基地发布全新人工智能发展战略，承诺新成立的 “防务部门” 将借鉴埃隆?马斯克的管理模式，全力提速发展。3 月，美方宣布帕兰提尔旗下搭载人工智能的指挥控制系统 “Maven 项目” 正式立项，未来数年经费均得到保障，只是流程依旧繁琐复杂。同月，美国陆军将原本分散给多家企业的订单整合，统一交由安杜里尔承接，这份十年期合同总额最高达 200 亿美元。

作者：经济学人       来源：一天一篇外刊