经济学人：40年首次，美国"反向封锁"霍尔木兹海峡

作者：经济学人       来源：一天一篇外刊

WHEN AMERICA and Israel began their war on February 28th, it was widely expected that Iran would choke off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Few would have predicted that, less than two months later, Donald Trump would impose a blockade of his own, targeting traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas. It went into effect on April 13th. Mr Trump hopes economic strangulation might force Iran to open the strait where bombardment has failed. It is a dangerous gamble that could compound the global energy crisis and lead to fresh escalation.

2 月 28 日美以开战之初，外界普遍预计伊朗会封锁霍尔木兹海峡。但几乎没人料到，短短不到两个月，唐纳德?特朗普竟亲自出手，对伊朗港口及沿海地区的往来船只实施封锁。4月13日，这一措施正式生效。特朗普希望，靠这种经济绞杀手段，迫使伊朗开放海峡（此前的军事打击并未奏效）。这是一场危险的豪赌，不仅会加剧全球能源危机，还可能引发局势进一步升级。

America’s rationale is simple. Iranian threats have drastically reduced tanker traffic through Hormuz. But Iran has continued to export its own oil, albeit at reduced levels. It has also allowed some ships to pass if they pay a fee; two large Chinese state-owned tankers carrying Iraqi and Saudi oil proceeded through the strait on April 11th, as did a Liberia-flagged tanker. Mr Trump’s message is that if neutral cargo cannot pass unhindered, Iran’s can’t either. The military aspect of the plan is “absolutely feasible”, says Mark Montgomery, a retired rear-admiral. America can board and seize ships relatively easily; it seized ten tankers linked to Venezuela between December and February. “You don’t have to catch every ship,” he adds. “Just enough ships to send the message.”

美国这样做的理由也很简单。伊朗的威胁已让经霍尔木兹海峡的油轮数量大幅锐减，但伊朗本国的石油出口并未停止，只是规模有所缩减。伊朗还对部分缴费船只放行。4 月 11 日，两艘载有伊拉克与沙特原油的东大大型油轮，以及一艘利比里亚籍油轮均顺利通过海峡。特朗普的态度很明确：既然中立货轮无法畅行无阻，伊朗的船只也不能例外。美国退役海军少将马克?蒙哥马利称，这一计划在军事层面 “完全可行”。美方登检、扣押船只难度不高，去年 12 月至今年 2 月间，就曾扣押过十艘与委内瑞拉相关的油轮。 他还表示： “不必扣押每一艘船，只要扣下足够数量，就能达到震慑效果。”

If Mr Trump can choke off Iran’s hard currency and generate an economic crisis, all while curbing the impact on oil prices and commodity flows, limiting the military escalation that follows and managing the fraught diplomacy of a blockade against multinational shipping, he might return to the negotiating table on better terms. But Iran’s regime believes it won the first contest of wills with America, having survived the war, hung on to its nuclear material and kept a tight grip on Hormuz. It has reason to believe it can outlast Mr Trump again. “It’s long-term or nothing,” says Kevin Rowlands, who ran the Royal Navy’s think-tank until last year, and now edits the RUSI Journal, a military publication. “You don’t blockade for a week.”

特朗普若能一边切断伊朗的外汇来源、制造伊朗的经济危机，又能控制住对油价与大宗商品运输的冲击，同时避免局势军事升级，妥善处理针对多国船只封锁带来的复杂外交问题，就能以更有利的姿态重回谈判桌。但伊朗认为，在与美国的首轮意志角力中已是赢家：挺过了战事，保住了核材料，也依旧牢牢控制着霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗有理由相信，自己能再次拖垮特朗普。曾执掌英国皇家海军智库、现任军事期刊《RUSI Journal》主编的凯文?罗兰兹表示：“封锁要么打持久战，要么就别做。只封一个星期，根本没用。”

More broadly, Mr Trump’s decision to impose a blockade, which came after he toyed with the idea that he might “jointly” control Hormuz with Iran’s regime, a practice that would upend international law governing such waterways, suggests that the very principle of freedom of navigation is coming under enormous stress. It is, concludes Mr Rowlands, “another nail in the coffin for any pretence that there is such a thing as a rules-based order or international law”.?

从更宏观的层面来看，特朗普此前放风，称美国可与伊朗 “共同管控” 霍尔木兹海峡 。这一做法显然会颠覆相关国际法。而他最终选择实施封锁，也折射出航行自由原则正承受前所未有的压力。罗兰兹直言：“所谓‘以规则为基础的国际秩序’与国际法本就形同虚设，而美国此举无异于再给它钉上一颗棺材钉。”

作者：经济学人       来源：一天一篇外刊