经济学人：从全球神话到悬崖边缘：日本汽车制造业，还有救吗

作者：经济学人       来源：一天一篇外刊

In a doleful press conference last month, Mibe Toshihiro, chief executive of Honda, announced that the Japanese carmaker was on course to post its first net loss since 1957 in its fiscal year ending in March—a failure for which he took personal responsibility. In a sign of his contrition, Mr Mibe said that he would dock his pay by 30%, along with that of his deputy. Honda is not the only Japanese carmaker under severe strain. At an industry event the following week, Mr Mibe issued a stark warning: “The Japanese automotive industry itself is on the brink of survival.”

上个月，在一场气氛沉重的发布会上，本田首席执行官三部敏宏宣布，本田预计在截至今年3月的这一财年将出现自1957年以来的首次净亏损。对于这一结果，他表示将由自己承担责任。为了表示歉意，三部称，自己将减薪30%，副手也会一同减薪。承受巨大压力的，并不只有本田一家日本车企。就在接下来持续一周的行业活动上，三部敏宏发出严厉警告：“整个日本汽车产业，已经走到了生死存亡的边缘。

He was hardly exaggerating. Nissan, once the sixth-largest carmaker in the world by sales, is entering the second year of a brutal restructuring, with seven factory closures planned by 2028. A 25% tariff on cars imported into America has bitten into the industry’s profits. Yet it is the blistering rise of Chinese competitors that has hit hardest. In 2019 Japanese carmakers accounted for 31% of sales globally; by last year their share had fallen to 26%. The shock has been greatest in Asia. In China itself, sales of Japanese cars have slumped by a third since 2019. In South-East Asia, once a stronghold, their share of the market was 57% in 2025, down from 68% just two years earlier. Japanese carmakers once seemed unstoppable. How did it go so wrong for them?

此言绝非危言耸听。以销量计算曾位列全球第六大车企的日产，如今已步入重组第二年，并计划在 2028年前关闭七座工厂。美国对进口汽车征收 25% 的关税，进一步蚕食了日本车企行业的利润。但真正带来致命冲击的，是中国车企的强势崛起。2019 年，日本车企全球市占率达 31%，而到去年，这一比例已降至 26%。亚洲市场受到的震荡尤为剧烈。在中国本土，日系车销量较 2019 年暴跌三分之一。而在昔日被视为后花园的东南亚，市场份额从两年前的 68%，一路下滑至 2025 年的 57%。日本车企一度势不可挡，如今为何落得这般境地？

The heart of the problem is that, even more so than their Western counterparts, Japanese carmakers have struggled with electrification. Many have been sceptical of the staying power of electric vehicles (EVs), which account for a vanishingly small share of their sales (see chart). Conventional petrol vehicles make up more than half of sales for all Japanese carmakers; at beleaguered Nissan it is 80%. Rather than plug-in cars, most have opted instead to emphasise conventional hybrids, which rely on the engine and regenerative braking to power the battery, as the assembly of these fits more easily into a production line built for internal-combustion engines. Japan’s carmakers have expressed interest in alternative technologies such as hydrogen-powered cars for much the same

日本车企在电动化转型上步履维艰，甚至比欧美同行更为迟缓。不少日本厂商始终对电动汽车的持久竞争心存疑虑，电动车型在整体销量中的占比也微乎其微。目前，传统燃油车仍然占据日本车企销量的一半以上；而处境艰难的日产，这一比例更是高达80%。多数日企并未全力转向纯电车型，而是选择深耕传统混动汽车。混动车型依靠发动机和制动能量回收为电池供电，更易适配现有的内燃机生产线。出于类似原因，日本车企也一直对氢能源汽车等替代技术表现出浓厚兴趣。

Yet growth in EVs has continued apace, led by Chinese rivals. Sales of EVs, including plug-in hybrids, accounted for 26% of the global car market last year, up from just 3% in 2019. The pace of adoption has been especially brisk in Japan’s own neighbourhood: a third of cars sold in Asia are now EVs. It is not just China where they have taken off. In Singapore, 45% of car registrations last year were EVs. In Thailand, where Japanese carmakers have had supply-chains in place as far back as the 1960s, the share is 20% and rising.

在中国车企的引领下，电动汽车的增长势头依旧迅猛。去年，包括插混车型在内的电动车已占据全球汽车市场的 26%，而 2019 年这一比例仅为 3%。电动化浪潮在日本周边地区推进得尤为迅猛：如今亚洲市场售出的车辆中，已有三分之一是电动车。这股热潮并非只出现在中国。去年新加坡的新车注册中，电动车占比高达 45%；而在泰国（ 日本车企早在 1960 年代就已布局供应链的市场）电动车占比也达到 20%，且仍在持续攀升。

作者：经济学人       来源：一天一篇外刊