外交事务：2月28日开战，中东被拖进更大的战局

作者：一天一篇外刊        来源：一天一篇外刊

WEEKS OF GUNBOAT diplomacy came to an end as American and Israeli warplanes began bombing targets across Iran on February 28th. The first signal to the outside world that war had begun was a siren breaking the Shabbat quiet across Israel, telling residents to remain close to shelters. Minutes later, footage showed columns of smoke rising over Tehran. An hour and a half after that, President Donald Trump released an eight-minute video announcing America had launched “major combat operations in Iran”, saying that it would be “a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests”. Soon after, the first alerts were received in Israel warning that Iranian missiles were heading for the north of the country. Then the warnings spread across Israel and to Gulf countries as well. The first reported casualty was someone in Abu Dhabi who was struck by shrapnel after missiles were intercepted over the United Arab Emirates.

持续数周的军事施压终于演变成了真刀真枪。2月28日，美军和以色列战机开始轰炸伊朗境内目标。以色列在安息日突然响起防空警报，提醒居民进入就近避难所。外界意识到战争爆发。没过多久，网上就流传出德黑兰多地升起浓烟的影像。大约一个半小时后，美国总统特朗普发布了一段八分钟的视频，视频中，特朗普宣布美国已发动“重大作战行动”，并称这将是一场规模巨大、且持续的行动，特朗普还表示此举旨在阻止极其邪恶、激进的伊朗威胁美国及核心国家安全利益。

Immediately after the first strikes Israeli officials said that America and Israel would spend the next 48 hours directing all the fire-power at their disposal on Iran’s offensive capabilities, particularly its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Some reports from Iran suggested there had been attacks on known missile sites. But it appeared that the main strikes, at least early on, were against key government buildings in the capital, including the headquarters of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and the Iranian parliament. Strikes also targeted Iran’s judiciary, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country’s intelligence services, its atomic-energy agency and sites across the country, including the port of Chabahar. They bore the hallmarks of a comprehensive leadership-decapitation operation. Israeli officials have confirmed that the supreme leader and President Masoud Pezeshkian were targets, though there is no information about their well-being.

首轮空袭刚过，以色列官员就表示，美以两国将在接下来的48小时内动用一切火力，集中摧毁伊朗的进攻能力，尤其是弹道导弹库。伊朗方面则称，已知的导弹阵地确实遭到了攻击。但这次行动首轮打击的重心似乎更偏向首都的核心政府机构，包括最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的办公总部，以及伊朗议会。这次空袭目标还包括伊朗司法系统、伊斯兰革命卫队、情报部门、原子能机构，并覆盖全国多地，包括恰巴哈尔港。整体来看，这一系列行动很像一次全面的“斩首式”打击。以色列官员也已确认，伊朗最高领袖和总统马苏德·佩泽稀奇都是这次的袭击目标，但目前尚无两人安危与否的相关信息。

The scale of Iranian retaliation will influence the course of the American-Israeli campaign. Despite the large build-up, the two countries will only be capable of continuing a war at full tempo for a few weeks before their munition stockpiles falter. But regime change is extremely unlikely to be achieved within days and by air power alone. Iran’s leadership has prepared for this and will be in bunkers. Mr Khamenei is thought to have been whisked out of Tehran to a safer location. The regime has already appointed standby replacements for any officials who are killed. Neither is it likely that the protests will resume while missiles are flying. “When bombs are falling, people don’t take to the streets,” observes an Israeli intelligence analyst.

接下来，战争的走向取决于伊朗的反击力度。尽管美国和以色列前期做了大规模集结，这种“满负荷”的作战顶多维持几周，接下来弹药补给就会成为问题。可要在短短几天内、仅靠空中打击就实现政权更迭，几乎不可能。伊朗高层也早就为此做了充分准备，一旦战争打响，他们可能会躲进地下掩体。据称，哈梅内伊已被紧急转移出德黑兰，前往更安全的地点。伊朗也为可能被炸死的官员提前安排了“候补人选”。与此同时，在空袭警报不断的情况下，伊朗国内抗议也不太可能重新燃起。一位以色列情报分析人士直白的说到：“炸弹落下时，伊朗人不会走上街头。”

Mr Trump has repeatedly promised not to repeat the mistakes of the Iraq war, in which America sent ground troops to occupy another country for years. He will have to decide within days if enough has been achieved in the first wave of strikes to declare victory. The first stage of this war has been meticulously planned. But no battle plan ever lasts beyond its first encounter with reality. Although America and Israel have unleashed a mighty war machine, Iran’s Islamic regime has long been preparing for this day. It is unlikely to leave without a fight.

特朗普一再承诺，不会重蹈伊拉克战争的覆辙。（不会再把美军地面部队派进别国、陷入多年）。接下来几天，他必须判断：首轮打击的战果是否足以让他宣布“胜利”。这场战争的第一阶段筹划得极其周密，但任何作战计划，一旦进入实战就会瞬息万变。尽管美以两国已开动强大的战争机器，伊朗的伊斯兰政权也早已为这一天做足准备，也不太可能束手就擒。

作者：一天一篇外刊        来源：一天一篇外刊