经济学人：一纸判决，巴拿马港口易主

作者：一天一篇外刊        来源：一天一篇外刊

After a year of threats and declarations of hemispheric domination, Donald Trump’s campaign to “take back” the Panama Canal, wresting it from alleged Chinese control, has yielded results at last. On January 29th Panama’s Supreme Court ruled that the contract held by Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of the Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison, to operate the ports at each end of the canal, breaches Panama’s constitution. The next day José Raúl Mulino, Panama’s president, said that APM Terminals, part of Maersk, a Danish outfit, would run the ports until new contracts can be tendered. It is hard to imagine that any of this would have happened without the pressure applied by the United States. The secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said the United States was “encouraged” by the decision. But new risks loom for Panama.

过去一年，特朗普不断扬言要“夺回”巴拿马运河，同时还抛出“称霸西半球”的强硬表态。如今，这场施压终于有了结果。1月29日，巴拿马最高法院裁定，巴拿马港口公司（Panama Ports Company）持有并运营运河两端港口的合同违反巴拿马宪法。该公司隶属于总部设在香港的长江和记集团（CK Hutchison）。1月30日，巴拿马总统何塞·劳尔·穆利诺表示，在新合同重新招标之前，将由丹麦马士基旗下的APM码头公司（APM Terminals）接手运营这些港口。很难想象，如果没有美国施加的压力，事情会发展到这一步。美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥称，美方对巴拿马这一决定“深受鼓舞”。但对巴拿马来说，新的风险也正在逼近。

China’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office called the ruling “absurd” and “pathetic”, adding that Panama would pay a “heavy price”. The Supreme Court’s decision cannot be appealed, but can be referred to international arbitration. On February 3rd CK Hutchison said it would do so. China has other ways to hit back. It might decide to put limits on Panamanian-flagged ships, cut infrastructure financing to the country or push ahead with developing alternative trans-oceanic trade routes.

港澳办把巴拿马的裁决决斥为“荒唐”“可悲”，并警告巴拿马将为此付出“沉重代价”。巴拿马最高法院的判决无法上诉，但可以提交国际仲裁。2月3日，长江和记表示将启动仲裁程序。还有其他反制措施。例如，可能会限制悬挂巴拿马国旗的船舶航行，削减对巴拿马的基础设施建设融资，或者推进开发替代性的跨洋贸易路线。

The ruling also hurts Panama’s investment credentials. In 2023 the Supreme Court ordered the closure of Cobre Panamá, a vast, foreign-owned copper mine. Panama lost its investment-grade rating four months later. And there is the issue of future tenders. Maersk, whose subsidiaries bought the railway running between the two ports last April and is set to operate the ports themselves during the transition, is in pole position to win. That risks exposing the Panamanian government to charges of favouritism.

这项裁决也会进一步削弱巴拿马投资信誉。早在2023年，巴南马最高法院就下令关闭规模庞大、由外资控股的科布雷·巴拿马（Cobre Panamá)铜矿；仅四个月后，巴拿马便失去了投资级信用评级。接下来还牵涉到新的招标：去年4月,丹麦马士基集团通过旗下公司收购了连接两座港口的铁路，并将在过渡期内实际负责港口运营，因此在未来的竞标中明显占了先机。但这也可能让巴拿马招致“偏袒特定企业”的质疑。

The capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and ominous threats over Greenland’s sovereignty grab the world’s attention, but the squeeze that Mr Trump has put on Panama is more relevant for the rest of the Americas. Small countries are vulnerable. The United States now wants a western hemisphere “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets”. Panama could become a blueprint. Tomás Sucre Ulloa, a Panamanian lawyer following the case, notes that many Panamanian politicians who once defended CK Hutchison are now railing against it with the United States “breathing down their neck”. “The law didn’t change,” he says, “the geopolitical climate did.”

围绕抓捕委内瑞拉前总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗，以及对格陵兰主权发出的不祥威胁，确实吸引了全世界的目光；但特朗普对巴拿马施加的压力，对美洲其他国家更具现实意义。小国最容易被拿捏。美国如今想要一个“没有敌对渗入、也不被外部势力掌控关键资产”的西半球。巴拿马很可能会成为一个样板。一直关注此案的巴拿马律师托马斯·苏克雷·乌略亚指出，许多曾经为长江和记辩护的巴拿马政客，，如今在美国压力逼近、盯得很紧的情况下，转过头来开始反咬一口“法律没有变，”他说，“变的是地缘政治的气候。”

作者：一天一篇外刊        来源：一天一篇外刊