经济学人：凌晨3点的突袭与3000亿桶的诱惑——这只是特朗普石油拼图的第一块

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊

JUST HOURS after America captured Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s dictator, in a nighttime raid on January 3rd, President Donald Trump clarified his motivation. “The oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time,” he said. “We are going to have our very large United States oil companies…spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure…and start making money for the country.”

1月3日凌晨，美军突袭并抓获了委内瑞拉强人马杜罗。仅几小时后，特朗普就挑明了此次行动的目的。他直言不讳地表示：“委内瑞拉的石油产业早就瘫痪了，这么多年一直烂在那里。我们要让美国石油巨头……砸下几十亿美元，把那堆破烂不堪的设备修复……并重新开始为我们创收。”

The declaration had the sweet taste of revenge. Eighteen years ago, under Hugo Chávez, Venezuela nationalised assets belonging to American and other Western companies; claims worth a combined $60bn have been filed against it and PDVSA, the national oil company, in American and international tribunals. On December 16th Mr Trump had demanded that Venezuela return “all of the oil, land and other assets that they previously stole from us”.

特朗普的这番表态透着一股复仇的快感。18年前，在乌戈·查韦斯（Hugo Chávez,）执政期间，委内瑞拉将美国及其他西方公司的资产强行收归国有。为此，受损企业纷纷向美国和国际仲裁法庭提起诉讼，向委内瑞拉政府及国家石油公司（PDVSA）索要赔偿，涉案总金额高达600亿美元。就在12月16日，特朗普还曾严正要求委内瑞拉归还“此前从我们手中掠夺的所有石油、土地及其他资产”。

But the president wants more than retribution. Decades of underinvestment and mismanagement have caused Venezuela’s oil production to fall by two-thirds since the late 2000s, to around 1m barrels a day (b/d). Restoring idle capacity, the thinking goes, would make Venezuela rich while lining American pockets. Better still, Venezuela sits on some 300bn barrels of oil—a fifth of the world’s reserves—implying production might rise further still, and for a while. The heavy, sour crude that the country harbours is precisely the type of which American refineries are chronically short, at a time when America’s relations with Canada, a supplier of the stuff, are strained.

然而，特朗普想要的不仅是复仇。由于数十年的投资不足和管理不善，委内瑞拉的石油产量自2000年代末以来已暴跌三分之二，目前日产量仅维持在100万桶左右。按照白宫现在的逻辑，恢复这些闲置产能不仅能让委内瑞拉重振经济，美国也能顺带赚个盆满钵满。更理想的是，委内瑞拉坐拥约3000亿桶原油储量，占全球总量的五分之一，这意味着石油产量不仅有巨大的提升空间，且增长势头能长期维持。此外，这里还蕴藏的重质高硫原油（重酸油），恰恰是美国炼油厂长期紧缺的品种；而眼下，美国与该原料的主供应国加拿大的关系正处于紧张状态。

Output might recover in a few months if there is a smooth political transition and American sanctions on Venezuela, blockade included, are lifted (a big “if”). Basic maintenance and repairs might push the country’s crude output to 1.2m b/d by the end of 2026, estimates Kpler, a data firm. That would still be some way short of the country’s maximum potential output, however, and leave it a little behind Libya, the world’s 18th-largest producer. To pump more, Venezuela would need to overcome three problems: a dire need for funds, a shortage of labour and a saturated

如果委内瑞拉政quan更迭平稳，美国又解除对委内瑞拉包括封锁在内的各项制裁，那么石油产量有望在几个月内回升（当然，这只是个大胆的假设）。数据公司Kpler预测，通过基础设备维护和修缮，到2026年底，委内瑞拉的原油日产量可能推升至120万桶。即便如此，这与委内瑞拉的最大产能仍有相当一段距离，产量排名也将略逊于全球第18大产油国利比亚。若想进一步增产，委内瑞拉必须克服三大难题：资金极度匮乏、劳动力短缺以及市场饱和。

Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimates that $110bn in capital expenditure on exploration and production alone would be required to bring the country’s output back to where it was 15 years ago—twice the amount America’s oil majors combined invested worldwide in 2024. Mr Trump seems to think those firms would rush to sign big cheques. Chevron, which is already present in Venezuela and exporting some 200,000 b/d to America under a sanctions waiver, may well expand its operations. But others have not forgotten the pains of the past. The success of Mr Trump’s plans is hardly guaranteed. He will depart the White House in just over three years, and may lose interest before then. So far American majors have remained silent on the president’s call to arms. Nor are global commodity traders “in the starting blocks”, says Jean-Fran?ois Lambert, a consultant. Banks and insurers, which would be needed to finance and secure shipments, would be even slower to return.

咨询公司 Rystad Energy 估计，单是勘探和生产两项所需的费用支出就高达 1100 亿美元，这才能让只委内瑞拉的产量恢复到 15 年前的水平——这笔巨款相当于美国所有石油巨头 2024 年全球投资总额的两倍。特朗普似乎认为这些公司会争先恐后地投入巨额资本。的确，雪佛龙公司目前已扎根委内瑞拉，并在制裁豁免下每日向美出口约 20 万桶原油，它大有扩大业务之势。但其他公司并未忘记往日的惨痛教训。特朗普的计划能否成功远非板上钉钉：他将在三年多后卸任。到目前为止，面对总统的“动员令”，美国石油巨头们反应冷淡。咨询顾问让-弗朗索瓦·兰伯特指出，全球大宗商品交易商也没有“蓄势待发”的意思。至于负责提供融资和承保的银行与保险公司，回归的速度只会更慢。

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊