Looking Ahead to 2026: What Lies Ahead for Myanmar

缅媒：展望2026年——缅甸的未来

作者：伊洛瓦底江社论        来源：伊洛瓦底江

The year 2026 began with the arrest of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting mixed global reactions. This perhaps forewarned us that this year newsrooms will be busy covering many issues from regime change to political and economic crises, natural disasters and a trade war.

2026年伊始，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗（nicolas Maduro）及其妻子被捕，引发全球不同反应。这或许预先警告了我们，今年的新闻编辑室将忙于报道从政权更迭到政治和经济危机、自然灾害和贸易战等许多问题。

Already this week, our newsroom quickly shifted focus to both regional and Myanmar news. While journalists can’t foresee the future, we have our own forecasts and predictions, and we consider all possibilities and stay practical and grounded.

本周，我们的编辑部迅速将焦点转移到地区和缅甸新闻上。虽然记者无法预见未来，但我们有自己的预测和预测，我们考虑所有的可能性，保持实际和脚踏实地。

The Myanmar junta on Sunday pardoned thousands of prisoners to mark the country’s Independence Day. We expect to see more of this pattern this year—mass releases, including more political prisoners.

缅甸军政府周日赦免了数千名囚犯，以纪念该国的独立日。我们预计今年会看到更多类似的大规模释放，包括更多的政治犯。

Myanmar’s election dominated the coverage in recent weeks, with expectations that the military-backed party would win and form a government in March—a result many view as unchanged from previous years. The regime will extend its rule through the election.

最近几周，缅甸的选举占据了媒体的头条，人们预计军方支持的政党将在3月获胜并组建政府，许多人认为这一结果与往年没有变化。该政权将通过选举延长其统治。

China commented positively on the first election phase, expressing hopes for “continued stability and further reconciliation” in Myanmar. We will see more Chinese involvement in the Myanmar political landscape and a resumption of Belt and Road Initiative-related projects in Myanmar.

中方积极评价缅甸第一阶段选举，希望缅甸继续保持稳定，推进和解。我们将看到中国更多地参与缅甸政治格局，并在缅甸恢复与“一带一路”倡议相关的项目。

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed US support for Myanmar, urging an end to violence, humanitarian access, release of detainees and dialogue towards crisis resolution, emphasizing regional security.

美国国务卿马可·卢比奥重申了美国对缅甸的支持，敦促结束暴力，人道主义准入，释放被拘留者，通过对话解决危机，强调地区安全。

The year is expected to see more prisoner releases, possibly including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the establishment of a new government. Uncertainty remains about widely condemned war criminal Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s future role, amid internal calls for his departure.

预计今年将有更多的囚犯获释，其中可能包括昂山素季，缅甸还将成立新政府。广受谴责的战犯敏昂莱（Min Aung hlaing）大将的未来角色仍存在不确定性，缅甸内部呼吁他下台。

Coverage will continue of armed conflicts and potential ceasefires, especially between the military and ethnic groups, with China pressing for peace in border areas and likely sponsoring post-election ceasefires.

报道将继续报道武装冲突和可能的停火，特别是军队和少数民族之间的停火，中国敦促边境地区实现和平，并可能支持选举后的停火。

We plan to cover the armed conflicts and bilateral ceasefires between the Myanmar military and ethnic groups. China has pressured border groups to stop fighting and reach agreements, anticipating a government similar to Thein Sein’s in the early to mid-2010s. To the regime, the fight for legitimacy—not just for survival—is now key. Myanmar’s new government will seek to win back the country’s UN seat, now occupied by the opposition.

我们计划报道缅甸军方和少数民族之间的武装冲突和双边停火。中国已经向边境组织施压，要求他们停止战斗并达成协议，期望在2010年代初至中期建立一个类似吴登盛（Thein sein）的政府。对该政权而言，现在的关键是为合法性而战，而不仅仅是为了生存。缅甸新政府将寻求赢回该国在联合国的席位，该席位目前被反对派占据。

Ongoing conflict is likely, with the Spring Revolution Alliance forming a joint command among forces like the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, Bamar People’s Liberation Army, Chin Brotherhood, Danu People’s Liberation Front/Army, the Student Armed Force, and other ethnic forces, continuing their opposition to Naypyitaw.

随着春季革命联盟在克伦尼民族国防军、缅族人民解放军、钦族兄弟会、达努族人民解放阵线/军队、学生武装部队和其他民族力量之间形成联合指挥部，继续反对内比都，冲突可能会持续下去。

On the economy, Myanmar’s 2026 outlook is bleak, marked by diminished growth and lost future potential. A major earthquake in March 2025 caused US$11 billion in damage according to the World Bank, redirecting limited resources away from education and health, not to mention increased and secret defense spending to quell the resistance.

在经济方面，缅甸2026年的前景黯淡，增长放缓，未来潜力丧失。根据世界银行的数据，2025年3月的一场大地震造成了110亿美元的损失，将有限的教育和卫生资源转移，更不用说为了平息抵抗而增加和秘密的国防开支了。

The country faces an ongoing brain drain as skilled workers leave or turn to low-productivity agriculture due to a collapse in formal jobs. As of late 2025, frequent power outages affected 75 percent of firms, crippling manufacturing.

由于正式工作岗位的减少，熟练工人离开或转向低生产率的农业，该国面临着持续的人才流失。截至2025年底，频繁的停电影响了75%的公司，严重影响了制造业。

By 2026, sadly, the view of “Myanmar as failed state” has largely given way to “Myanmar as scam state”. Crackdowns, like those at KK Park, often fail to dismantle core infrastructure, which simply relocates. Coordinated sanctions by the US and UK in late 2025 have further isolated legitimate trade by deterring international banking activity. Our team is focused on the conflict driven economy and rare earths.

可悲的是，到2026年，“缅甸是一个失败国家”的观点在很大程度上已经让位于“缅甸是一个骗局国家”。像KK园区那样的镇压，往往不能拆除核心基础设施，而只是搬迁。美国和英国将于2025年底联合实施制裁，通过阻止国际银行活动，进一步孤立了合法贸易。我们的团队专注于冲突驱动的经济和稀土。

Regarding the latter, our attention will shift particularly to Kachin and Shan states.

关于后者，我们的注意力将特别转移到克钦邦和掸邦。

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ response to the establishment of new military-backed governments in the past has always been inadequate, while the UN has always been predictable, releasing an endless stream of expressions of “concern”. These weak responses have been compounded recently by Western aid cuts. The Philippines will chair ASEAN this year, after Malaysia actively engaged multiple stakeholders in Myanmar in 2025, so the focus will shift to Manila’s stance. Thailand’s upcoming election in February may impact its border issues with Cambodia but its policy on Myanmar is not concrete. Millions of people from Myanmar have sought refuge in Thailand, especially since the coup, with many continuing to leave.

过去，东南亚国家联盟（Association of Southeast Asian nations）对军方支持的新政府成立的反应总是不够充分，而联合国（UN）的反应总是可以预见的，它会源源不断地表达“关切”。这些软弱的反应最近又因西方削减援助而变得更加复杂。菲律宾将在今年担任东盟轮值主席国，此前马来西亚在2025年积极与缅甸的多个利益攸关方接触，因此焦点将转向马尼拉的立场。泰国即将于2月份举行的大选可能会影响其与柬埔寨的边界问题，但其对缅甸的政策并不具体。数以百万计的缅甸人在泰国寻求庇护，尤其是在政变之后，许多人继续离开。

All in all, Myanmar citizens deserve more after living through five dark years.

总而言之，在经历了五年的黑暗之后，缅甸公民应该得到更多。

It will be a busier year than the last.

今年将比去年更加繁忙。

作者：Aung Zaw        来源：伊洛瓦底江