经济学人：为什么经济还没崩？真正的风险，藏在2026年

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊

FOR YEARS the world economy has defied doomsayers. When the coronavirus pandemic struck, many people expected a long slump; instead there was a fast and inflationary rebound. When central banks then raised interest rates to quell prices, a widely forecasted recession never came. And after President Donald Trump slapped “Liberation Day” tariffs on trading partners in April, markets tanked. Investors feared an enormous trade war and a deep crisis. But the tariffs were watered down and stockmarkets began an astonishing bull run. At the same time America’s real economy has grown at a rate that, though noticeably slower than before, is far from recessionary. Globally, too, growth has slowed but not stopped.

近年来，世界经济一次次让悲观论者落空。新冠疫情暴发时，许多人以为全球经济将陷入长期低迷；结果却是经济迅速反弹，并伴随着通胀上升。随后，各国央行加息以遏制物价上涨，市场普遍预期的经济衰退却并未到来。今年4月，唐纳德·特朗普总统对贸易伙伴加征所谓的“解放日”关税，金融市场一度暴跌，投资者担心会引发一场大规模贸易战并导致严重危机。但这些关税最终被大幅削弱，股市随即开启了一轮令人惊叹的牛市。与此同时，美国实体经济的增速虽明显低于此前水平，但仍远未陷入衰退。从全球范围看，经济增长同样有所放缓，却并未停滞。

Will this resilience continue in 2026? The threats to growth are almost too many to count. The lesson of recent years is that they are less likely to cause a crash than some might fear. Yet they could still throw plenty more sand in the gears of the world economy.

这种韧性能否延续到2026年？

摆在全球经济面前的增长风险几乎不胜枚举。近几年的经验表明，这些风险引发系统性崩溃的可能性，未必像一些人担心的那样高；但它们仍可能不断干扰世界经济的正常运转，使增长步伐进一步放缓。

For a start, Mr Trump’s trade war is far from over. At the time of writing the tariff rate on goods imported to America, calculated from customs revenue, was only 10.5% (versus a threatened 28% calculated by wonks at the height of April’s scare). But the worst tariffs on China, the sole country to have seriously retaliated against Mr Trump, are merely paused, whatever the recent conciliatory rhetoric of both sides. And although the Supreme Court is likely to curtail Mr Trump’s power to set tariffs at his total discretion, his administration is preparing every legal alternative in its arsenal to keep levies high. A shift from one legal mechanism to others would create upheaval and uncertainty.

首先，特朗普掀起的贸易战仍在延宕之中。

截至本文发稿时，美国对进口商品征收的平均关税税率约为10.5%，明显低于今年4月市场极度恐慌时、一些研究人员测算的28%。然而，对中国实施的最高强度关税——而中国也是唯一一个对特朗普采取实质性反制的国家——被按下暂停键，尽管近期双方在言辞上频频释放缓和信号。与此同时，美国最高法院很可能收紧特朗普在关税设定上的自由裁量权，特朗普政府仍在穷尽一切法律路径，力图将关税水平维持在高位。一旦关税依据从一种法律机制转向另一种，不可避免地会引发新的动荡与不确定性。

One live danger from the tariffs is their impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. By the spring of 2026 tariffs will probably be boosting America’s underlying rate of annual inflation by about one percentage point. That could make the Fed reluctant to cut interest rates as much as markets hope. At least in 2022 and 2023 labour markets were booming as inflation surged. But because tariffs hurt, rather than help, economic growth, the Fed might have to put up with a softer-than-ideal labour market to keep a lid on prices.

关税带来的一个现实风险，在于它们可能干扰美联储的货币政策。

到2026年春季，关税很可能会使美国的潜在年度通胀率抬高约1个百分点，这将使美联储在降息问题上比市场预期更加谨慎。至少在2022年和2023年，通胀飙升的同时，劳动力市场依然强劲；但由于关税对经济增长的作用是抑制而非促进，美联储可能不得不容忍一个低于理想状态的劳动力市场，以维持对通胀的控制。

The mirror-image of that danger is the risk that Mr Trump bends the Fed to his will in 2026, casting doubt on the central bank’s long-term inflation-fighting credibility. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, is due to step down in May. His departure could set off a succession drama at the central bank. His likeliest replacement is Chris Waller, a technocratic governor whom Mr Trump appointed in his first term. If Mr Trump chooses someone more partisan, expect Mr Powell to stay on as a Fed governor—a separate role for which his term does not expire until 2028—in an attempt to preserve the institution’s independence.

与上述风险相对应的另一重隐忧，是特朗普可能在2026年将美联储进一步纳入其意志之下，从而削弱美国央行长期抗击通胀的公信力。

现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于明年5月卸任，他的离职可能引发央行高层的人事更替风波。最有可能的接任人选是克里斯托弗·沃勒——位以专业判断和制度规则见长的美联储理事，曾在特朗普首个任期内获其提名。若特朗普选择一位更具党派色彩的人物出任主席，鲍威尔很可能继续留任美联储理事——届时，这一独立职位的任期将持续至2028年——以此尽量维护美联储的制度独立性。

The last serious danger to the world economy is a collapse of stockmarket confidence. One explanation for this year’s resilience is that growth has been buttressed by the boom in artificial intelligence. With respect to America’s real economy, this argument is often overstated, because the vast majority of ai chips, for example, are imported. But the astonishing strength of stockmarkets, driven by faith in ai, is almost certainly making Americans feel wealthier, supporting their spending. If the boom fizzled out, the reverse would happen. Without the boom, there need not be a recession. But, plagued by tariffs, debt and a growth slowdown, there would not be much left to celebrate about the world economy.?

全球经济面临的最后一个重大风险，是股市信心的崩塌。

今年经济表现出韧性的一个解释在于，人工智能热潮为增长提供了支撑。就美国实体经济而言，这种说法往往被夸大了——例如，绝大多数人工智能芯片依赖进口。但由对人工智能的信心所推动的股市惊人强势，几乎可以肯定正在增强美国家庭的财富感受，从而支撑其消费。如果这股热潮退却，结果将恰恰相反。即便没有这轮繁荣，经济未必立刻陷入衰退；但在关税、债务高企以及增长放缓的多重压力下，全球经济恐怕也就难言还有多少值得庆祝的亮点了。

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊