经济学人：订单至今为零！输的是农民，赢的是巴西

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊

They say no one wins a trade war. Certainly, there are few bigger losers than soyabean farmers in the United States. Since May China, by far their biggest customer, has refused to buy a single bushel in retaliation for Donald Trump’s tariffs. The spat is ruining farmers in Illinois; Mr Trump is set to announce a $10bn agricultural-relief package. It is also raising costs for crushers in China’s Shandong province, who press beans into animal feed and cooking oil. But there has been one big winner: soyabean producers in Brazil. The rift between American farmers and their Chinese clients has let Brazil cement its place as the world’s soyabean superpower.

常言道，贸易战没有赢家。而在这场中美贸易争端中，美国的大豆种植户们无疑是最大的受害者之一。自5月以来，作为美国最大的大豆买家，中国接连出招反击特朗普，全面停止了对美国的大豆采购。一粒大豆都别想进入中国。这一举措让伊利诺伊州的农民深受打击，特朗普因此不得不推出总额达100亿美元的农业救助方案。与此同时，大豆压榨企业也因原料紧缺而面临成本上升的压力。相比之下，巴西大豆种植户则成了这场贸易纷争中的最大赢家。中美之间的贸易裂痕为巴西提供了契机，使其进一步巩固了“全球大豆超级大国”的地位。

It is not the first time Brazil has profited from Trumpian trade conflict. The same thing happened when Mr Trump yanked up tariffs on China in his first term. The proportion of China’s vast market for soyabeans supplied by Brazil leapt from about half in 2017 to three-quarters in 2018.

这已不是巴西第一次从特朗普挑起的贸易冲突中获益。早在特朗普第一任期大幅提高对华关税时，就发生过类似的情况。2017年，巴西大豆只占中国进口大豆市场中的一半；到了2018年，这一比例跃升至四分之三。

Prices drooped after that, but in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine they soared back close to record highs. Brazilian farmers frantically snapped up land and planted soya, pushing shipments to Asia and Europe in 2023 past 100m tonnes, a record. That investment binge caused “a bit of a hangover”, says Marcela Marini of Rabobank, a Dutch bank that specialises in financing agriculture.

此后，大豆价格一度下滑，但在俄乌战争周，大豆价格又飙升至历史高位。巴西农民疯狂购地、加紧扩大种植面积。2023。巴西大豆运往亚洲和欧洲的出口量突破1亿吨，创下纪录。荷兰农业金融机构——荷兰合作银行的Marcela Marini表示，巴西在土豆投资热潮消退后，也留下了产能过剩和市场波动等隐忧。

Mr Trump’s second trade war is the perfect antidote. China’s embargo on American beans has created a seller’s market in South America. What would have been a glut from a bumper harvest has become a stockpile. Brazil’s soyabean exports are on track to touch 110m tonnes in 2025. According to Brazilian-government data, that completely offsets the exports lost due to Mr Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian goods such as beef and coffee.

天无绝人之路。特朗普发动的第二场贸易战恰好化解了巴西的隐忧。中国对美国大豆的禁运，造就了一个南美洲的大豆卖方市场。原本因丰收而可能出现的供过于求，如今变成了庞大的库存。预计到2025年，巴西大豆的出口量将达到1.1亿吨。根据巴西政府的数据，这一规模足以完全弥补因特朗普对巴西牛肉、咖啡等商品征收50%关税而造成的出口损失。

The longer-term case for Brazilian soyabean boosterism is clear. Having been burnt twice, American farmers ?will probably seek to reduce their mutual dependence. American suppliers are scouting for alternative buyers in west Africa and South-East Asia, as they did in 2018. All the same, replacing Chinese demand is a huge challenge. That is partly why the planted area in the United States has declined 8% since 2017 to 34m hectares (88m acres). Farmers have been switching to maize and sorghum.

从长期来看，巴西大豆产量的增长前景十分明朗。美国农民在贸易冲突中已经两次受挫，未来很可能会努力减少对中国市场的依赖。与2018年一样，美国种植户正积极在西非和东南亚寻找新的买家。然而，要找到一个具有与中国相当需求规模的市场并非易事。也正因如此，美国的大豆种植面积自2017年以来已减少8%，降至3400万公顷（8800万英亩）。越来越多的农民开始转而种植玉米和高粱。

Trump-induced shocks are not the only reason for the victory of Brazilian soya, says Daniel Furlan Amaral of Abiove, a soya-trading lobby. Brazil’s soyabeans have a higher protein content than those grown in the United States. Its agricultural sector is more productive. At 49m hectares, it is also much bigger. Unlike the Midwest, Brazil’s hinterland offers ample space for further expansion. And with Brazil needing huge quantities of soya oil for its biofuels industry, there is a plenty of domestic demand for soyabeans anyway.

来自大豆贸易游说组织 Abiove 的 Daniel Furlan Amaral 表示，特朗普引发的贸易战并不是巴西大豆崛起的唯一原因。巴西大豆的蛋白质含量高于美国大豆，其农业部门的生产效率也更高。巴西的大豆种植面积达4900万公顷，规模远超美国。与美国中西部不同，巴西的内陆地区仍有充足的土地可以开发。此外，由于生物燃料产业对大豆油的需求量巨大，巴西国内本身就存在旺盛的大豆需求市场。

The grand ports and railways in the United States are its only remaining edge. The infrastructure boom taking place in Brazil could eventually put paid to that, too

美国仅剩的优势在于发达的港口和铁路运输体系。不过，巴西正在兴起的基础设施建设热潮，未来也可能会削弱甚至彻底抹平这一优势。

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊