铁娘子第N代传人高市早苗或成日本第一位女首相，对中国意味着什么

作者：一天一篇外刊          来源：一天一篇外刊

JAPAN’S LONG-TIME ruling party has elected its first-ever female leader. Takaichi Sanae, a conservative hardliner, defeated four other colleagues running to head the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). She is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister when the Diet meets to elect a new one in a vote expected on October 15th. She heralds a bracing new era of combative politics in Japan. Her ascent comes with the LDP in crisis, relations with America, Japan’s chief ally, in flux, and the regional security environment in disarray.

日本迎来前所未有的时刻。执政数十年的自民党（LDP）首次选出一位女性领袖——高市早苗。这位以立场强硬、思想保守著称的政客，在五名候选人中脱颖而出，成为自民党新任掌舵者。随着10月15日举行首相选举，高市早苗极有可能成为日本历史上的第一位女性首相。她登上巅峰的时刻，恰逢自民党陷入信任危机、日美同盟关系波动不定、安全格局也日趋复杂动荡。

The LDP has dominated Japanese politics since its founding 70 years ago, but it has stumbled in recent years. Scandals over political fundraising and campaign tactics alienated voters; the party also struggled to address concerns about rising living costs. In September 2024 the LDP turned to Ishiba Shigeru, a veteran lawmaker with an independent streak, to arrest its fall. But he stepped down after less than a year as prime minister, following drubbings in both lower and upper house elections that left the LDP and its coalition partner ruling with a minority in both chambers for the first time in its history.

自民党自创立七十年来几乎一直主导着日本政坛，但近年风光不再。政治献金和竞选丑闻不断爆发，令日本民众心生反感；同时，党内在应对物价上涨和民生压力方面表现乏力。为挽回颓势，自民党于2024年9月启用以独立性著称的资深议员石破茂出任首相，寄望重振人心。然而，他执政未满一年便因在众议院与参议院选举中双双惨败而辞职，使自民党及执政伙伴首次在国会两院同时丧失多数席位。

The official motto for this year’s leadership contest spelled out the task clearly: “#ChangeLDP”. Ms Takaichi, a disciple of the late prime minister Abe Shinzo, prevailed in a run-off over Koizumi Shinjiro, the son of another former prime minister, winning a majority of both Diet lawmakers’ and rank-and-file members’ votes. Mr Koizumi entered election day the odds-on favourite, but Ms Takaichi’s muscular vision of a staunchly conservative party prevailed over his calls for a big-tent approach.

今年自民党选举的官方口号直截了当地表明了目标：“#改变自民党（#ChangeLDP）”。高市早苗，已故首相安倍晋三的亲信与弟子，在决选中击败了另一位前首相之子小泉进次郎，赢得了国会议员与基层党员的双重支持。尽管小泉在投票前被普遍看好为夺冠热门，但最终，高市早苗以强硬而鲜明的保守理念，压倒了小泉倡导的“包容并蓄”的温和路线。

In a country with one of the world’s largest gender gaps, Ms Takaichi represents much-needed symbolic change. Yet she has hardly been a crusader for female empowerment. A staunch social conservative, she opposes giving married couples the legal right to keep separate surnames or allowing female succession in the imperial line, bellwether issues for gender equality in Japan. She calls Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s “Iron Lady”, her political role model. But her true mentor was Abe, who blessed her as the flag-bearer of the LDP’s right wing following his resignation as prime minister in 2020.

在一个被公认为全球性别差距最严重的国家里，高市早苗的当选象征着一种急需的社会变革。然而，她本人并非女性主义的倡导者。作为典型的社会保守派人物，她反对赋予已婚夫妻各自保留姓氏的法律权利，也坚决反对女性继承皇位——这两项议题在日本长期被视为性别平等的风向标。高市早苗曾将英国“铁娘子”撒切尔视为自己的政治偶像，但她真正的精神导师是前安倍晋三。自2020年安倍辞任以来，她便被视为自民党右翼势力的代表人物，并获得安倍的明确支持与政治祝福。

She also shares Abe’s revisionist views on Japan’s wartime history. That will complicate the recent rapprochement between Japan and South Korea, as well as attempts to stabilise relations with China. She calls for making the LDP a party “that promotes pride in [Japan’s] traditions and history”. She has been a regular visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, which houses the spirits of Japan’s war dead, including war criminals. If she chose to go as prime minister, she would be the first Japanese leader to do so in more than a decade, a move sure to anger Japan’s neighbours; an early litmus test will come during the shrine’s annual fall festival, which begins on October 17th.

在日本战时历史的态度上，高市早苗与安倍晋三立场一致，皆持修正主义倾向。这种观点势必为日韩近来脆弱的关系缓和增添变数，也可能阻碍中日关系稳定。高市早苗主张将自民党塑造成一个“以日本传统与历史为荣”的政党。她多次前往靖国神社参拜（那里供奉着日本阵亡者，包括被定罪的战犯。）倘若她在就任首相后再次前往参拜，将成为十多年来首位这样做的日本领导人，此举无疑将激起周边国家的强烈反应。而10月17日即将举行的秋季大祭，或许将成为检验她外交姿态的首次考验。

Another early test will soon follow. Donald Trump is expected to visit Tokyo on October 27th, en route to a meeting of the leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group in South Korea at the end of the month. During the campaign Ms Takaichi suggested that Japan might need to renegotiate a massive but vague tariff and investment agreement that Mr Ishiba struck with Mr Trump, if the terms prove unfavourable to Japan. But she has stated that the alliance with America remains the “cornerstone” of Japan’s security. She will probably try to strengthen ties with Mr Trump through their shared friendship with Abe, writes Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight, a consultancy.

另一场考验也在逼近。唐纳德·特朗普将于10月27日访问东京，随后前往韩国，出席本月底举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）领导人峰会。在竞选期间，高市早苗曾暗示，如果石破茂与特朗普政府签署的那项规模庞大却内容模糊的关税与投资协议被证实对日本不利，她将考虑重新谈判。尽管如此，她依然强调，与美国的同盟关系是日本安全的“基石”。日本政治咨询机构 Japan Foresight 的托比亚斯·哈里斯（Tobias Harris）评论称，高市早苗可能会借助她与安倍晋三的共同渊源，试图以此加强与特朗普之间的私人联系，从而稳固美日关系。

作者：一天一篇外刊           来源：一天一篇外刊