经济学人：盟友渐远，国际弃儿一条道走到黑

作者：经济学人         来源：一天一篇外刊

ON SEPTEMBER 14TH, after showing Marco Rubio, America’s secretary of state, the massive, 2,000-year-old blocks of the Western Wall at Jerusalem’s holiest site, Binyamin Netanyahu declared the alliance between their countries to be “as strong and as durable as the stones…we just touched”. Unfortunately, he is wrong.

9月14日，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在耶路撒冷最神圣的地点——西墙，向美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥介绍了那座由两千年前巨石砌成的古老遗迹。随后，他宣称，以美两国之间的同盟关系“如同我们方才触摸过的石墙一样坚固而长久”。然而，遗憾的是，他错了！

As Israel becomes isolated over its war in Gaza, it depends increasingly on America. During the current UN General Assembly old friends, including Australia, Britain, Canada and France, will recognise a Palestinian state, even as Israel’s expansion of settlements in the West Bank makes real statehood less likely. America is all that stands between Israel and a pariah status that would have dire implications for its diplomatic, legal and military security.

由于加沙战争，以色列在国际上日益孤立，对美国的依赖也愈发加深。在本届联合国大会期间，包括澳大利亚、英国、加拿大和法国在内的传统盟友都将承认巴勒斯坦国，尽管以色列在约旦河西岸不断扩张定居点，使巴勒斯坦真正建国的前景愈发渺茫。此时，美国是唯一能做的是阻止以色列沦为“国际弃儿”；而一旦失去美国这道屏障，将对以色列外交、法律及军事安全带来严重冲击。

For all Mr Netanyahu’s blithe assurances that relations with America are perfectly solid, they are not. The prime minister has riled the Trump administration and is ignoring cracks deep within the foundations of the alliance. Democratic voters have long been drifting away from America’s most indulged ally. Republican voters are increasingly losing faith, too. A sudden loss of popular American support would be a catastrophe for Israel—a small country of 10m people in a dangerous and hostile neighbourhood.

尽管内塔尼亚胡一再轻描淡写地说到与美国的关系“牢固无比”，事实并非如此。这位总理已经激怒了特朗普政府，并无视联盟根基中潜藏的裂痕。长期以来，美国民主党选民都在渐渐疏远这个最受优待的盟友；而如今，共和党选民的信心也在不断流失。若美国民众的支持突然丧失，对于以色列而言将是场灾难——毕竟，以色列只是一个处在危机四伏的地区、人口仅一千万的小国。

The polling in America is startling. The share of Americans who back Israel over the Palestinians is at a 25-year low. In 2022, 42% of American adults held an unfavourable view of Israel; now 53% do. A recent YouGov/Economist poll finds that 43% of Americans believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. In the past three years unfavourable views of Israel among Democrats over 50 rose by 23 percentage points. Among Republicans under 50, support is evenly divided, compared with 63% for Israel in 2022. Between 2018 and 2021 the share of evangelicals under the age of 30 who backed Israelis over Palestinians plunged from 69% to 34%. Pollsters think that shift has endured.

支持以色列而非巴勒斯坦的美国人所占比例，已经降至过去25年的最低水平。2022年，有42%的美国成年人对以色列持负面看法；如今，这一比例升至53%。《经济学人》与YouGov近期的联合调查发现，43%的美国人认为以色列正在加沙实施种族灭绝。在过去三年里，50岁以上民主党人对以色列的负面观感上升了23个百分点；而在50岁以下的共和党人中，对以色列的支持已出现平分秋色的局面，而在2022年，支持以色列的比例还高达63%。在2018年至2021年间，30岁以下福音派信徒中支持以色列多于巴勒斯坦的一方从69%骤降至34%。民调专家认为，这一转变会持续下去。

The war in Gaza has made all this worse. When Americans see photographs of starving children, they rightly shudder. Some Republican commentators, such as Tucker Carlson, resent the idea that Israel might drag America into another Middle Eastern war by attacking Iran. Whenever Israel is criticised, its defenders hurl accusations of antisemitism—not always fairly. With overuse, a heinous charge is losing its sting. That is bad for Jews everywhere, including in Israel.

加沙战争使这一切更加恶化。美国人看到那些饥饿儿童的照片时，自然而然会感到震惊与不安。一些共和党评论员（如塔克·卡尔森）则厌恶这样一种可能性：以色列通过攻击伊朗，把美国拖入另一场中东战争。每当以色列遭到批评时，以色列支持者往往攻讦对方“反犹太主义”——然而这种指控并非总是合理。随着这一指责的过度使用，它正在逐渐失去应有的震慑力。这对世界各地的犹太人而言都是不利的，包括以色列在内。

This week Mr Netanyahu talked of Israel as a “super-Sparta”, ready to stand alone. As Israel fights on in Gaza and attacks Arab capitals at will, it is betting that military domination over the Middle East will make it more secure. That muscle-bound, autarkic vision is a tragic misconception. It could eventually drive away its irreplaceable protector. For Israel, no strategic blunder could be more dangerous.

本周，内塔尼亚胡将以色列比作“超级斯巴达”，声称已准备好独自应对挑战。随着以色列在加沙持续作战，并随意袭击阿拉伯国家的首都，它押注凭借对中东地区的军事支配来增强自身安全。然而，这种以武力为依托、奉行孤立自守的设想，是一种悲剧性的误判。最终可能使以色列丧失那位不可替代的保护者。对于以色列而言，再没有比这更危险的战略性错误了。

作者：经济学人         来源：一天一篇外刊