经济学人：看到了全球军备竞赛中的新兴军火强国

作者：经济学人          来源：一天一篇外刊

The Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing will be anything but peaceful on September 3rd, when Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin and others gather to celebrate the end of the second world war. Chinese troops will march in a parade designed to boost national pride and flex military muscles. Perhaps most importantly the parade will showcase China’s newest warfighting equipment to potential buyers and potential adversaries.

9月3日，天安门广场热闹非凡。金正恩、普京等人齐聚一堂，庆祝二战结束。中国将举了行阅兵式，以激发民族自豪感并展示军事力量。更为重要的是，这场阅兵将向潜在买家和潜在对手展示最新的作战装备。

The world’s military planners are spending big on new weapons. The war in Ukraine, threats of abandonment by America, harden supply chains and secure flows of munitions. There is a voracious appetite for tanks, artillery, fighter jets and drones. On August 31st Britain announced a ￡10bn ($13.5bn) deal to supply Norway with five anti-submarine frigates. Yet not all of this is rewarding traditional exporters in America, Europe and Russia. Instead, two ambitious middle powers, South Korea and Turkey, are capitalising on the boom.

全球各国正大举投入武器采购。乌克兰战争的持续、美国弃守盟友的忧虑，都正推动各国加紧补充军备、强化供应链并确保弹药供应。坦克、火炮、战机与无人机的需求异常旺盛。8月31日，英国宣布与挪威达成一项价值100亿英镑（135亿美元）的协议，将挪威提供五艘反潜护卫舰。然而，这股军备热潮并未完全惠及美国、欧洲和俄罗斯等传统出口国。相反，韩国与土耳其这两股雄心勃勃的中等力量，正趁势崛起，积极把握这一轮军火市场的繁荣。

The arms race reflects a larger realignment. Europe’s arms companies need time to restore capacity lost after the end of the cold war and to rebuild inventories depleted by donations to Ukraine. Russia, usually the second-biggest arms exporter after America, is prioritising its own army after years of equipment losses in Ukraine. Western sanctions stop its firms from getting components critical to building advanced platforms, like fighter jets. Last year, Russian exports were down by nearly 50% from 2022 and its order books were subdued. Clients such as India, Vietnam and Egypt are looking elsewhere.

这场军备竞赛折射出更深层次的格局重组。欧洲军工企业需要时间来恢复冷战结束后丧失的产能，并重建因援助乌克兰而消耗殆尽的库存。俄罗斯（这个长期仅次于美国的全球第二大武器出口国）在乌克兰战场经历多年装备损耗后，如今正将重心转向满足本国军队的需求。与此同时，西方制裁切断了获取关键零部件的渠道，使其无法生产先进平台，例如战斗机。去年，俄罗斯的军火出口较2022年锐减近五成，订单簿同样萎缩。印度、越南和埃及等传统客户也纷纷将目光投向其他军火供应商。

Many are turning to South Korea (see chart one). While America is the biggest exporter of arms to European NATO members, South Korea and France are tied in second place. Worldwide in some categories of weapons, such as tanks and artillery, South Korea is outselling America. It is third behind America and France for combat aircraft. Last year, South Korea sold $3.2bn worth of Cheongung–II surface-to-air missile systems to Saudi Arabia, warships to Peru worth $460m and $1bn of self-propelled howitzers to Romania.

不少国家正将目光投向韩国（见图表一）。虽然美国依旧是欧洲北约成员国的最大军火供应国，但韩国与法国并列第二。在全球范围内，韩国在部分武器领域（例如坦克和火炮）的销量甚至已超越美国；在战斗机出口上，则位居美国和法国之后，排名第三。去年，韩国向沙特阿拉伯出售了价值32亿美元的“天弓-II”地对空导弹系统，向秘鲁出口了价值4.6亿美元的军舰，并向罗马尼亚交付了价值10亿美元的自行火炮。

Largest of all is the deal South Korea signed with Poland in 2022, now worth $22bn, to sell a range of weapons systems partly built in Poland. That includes 180 K2 Black Panther tanks, 672 howitzers, 48 FA-50 fighters and 288 K239 rocket launchers. Poland wants to deter Russia, and quickly. For South Korea it is a bold signal that it is ready to join the front rank of arms exporters, opening the door to other lucrative deals in Europe.

韩国规模最大的一笔交易是2022年与波兰签署的武器合同，价值已达220亿美元，合同内容涵盖一系列部分在波兰生产的武器系统。其中包括180辆K2“黑豹”坦克、672门自行火炮、48架FA-50战斗机以及288套K239火箭发射器。波兰希望借此快速形成对俄罗斯的威慑。而对韩国而言，这一交易则是大胆的宣示，表明其已准备跻身全球顶尖武器出口国之列，并借此打开欧洲市场上更多高额订单的大门。

作者：经济学人          来源：一天一篇外刊