经济学人：特朗普正式宣战，赢家已经稳了

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊

WHEN WESTERN countries began boycotting Russian oil in 2022, India saw an opportunity. Some 2.6m barrels a day (b/d) of crude once destined for Europe were available—at a sweet discount. India, which bought next to no oil from Russia in 2021, pounced. It has remained one of Russia’s biggest customers ever since. Today it imports nearly 2m b/d of Russian “sour”, heavy crude, representing 35-40% of its crude imports. This reduces India’s import bill at a time when the world’s fastest-growing big economy burns ever more petroleum. Local refiners make a killing by processing the stuff into fuels that they then export at full cost.

2022年，西方国家开始抵制俄罗斯石油，印度敏锐地察觉到一个机会：原本每天约260万桶运往欧洲的低价原油突然无人问津。2021年，印度几乎没有从俄罗斯进口石油，而从2022年起，印度迅速成为俄罗斯最大的客户之一。如今，印度每天进口近200万桶俄罗斯的“酸性”重质原油，占其原油进口总量的35%至40%。作为全球增长最快的大型经济体，印度的石油需求持续攀升，这一举措有助于显著降低其进口成本。而本地炼油厂则借此大赚一笔——他们将这些廉价原油加工成燃料，再以正常市场价格出口。

For three years Ukraine’s allies did not object, and the strategy looked savvy. Now it is in jeopardy. Irked that Vladimir Putin is making no effort to end his campaign in Ukraine, on August 6th President Donald Trump slapped an extra 25% tariff on India, which he accuses of funding Russia’s “war machine”. A bill vowing levies of up to 500% on countries that buy Russian oil is making its way through Congress. Meanwhile, the European Union’s 18th package of sanctions is due to ban refined products made from Russian crude in January.

过去三年，乌克兰及盟友一直未对印度的做法表示异议，这使得印度策略一度显得颇为精明。但如今，这一局面正面临风险。由于不满普京毫无结束战争的意图，8月6日，特朗普宣布对印度加征25%的额外关税，并指责资助俄罗斯。与此同时，美国国会正在审议一项法案，该法案拟对购买俄罗斯石油的国家征收最高达500%的关税。欧盟方面，第18轮制裁方案也将在明年1月生效，届时将禁止进口由俄罗斯原油炼制的成品油。

What if he did? First, India would race to find new supplies. Its refiners have already cut Russian orders by 40-50%, estimates a trader. In theory, Middle Eastern countries, which have 3.5m b/d in spare capacity, could provide additional help, along with producers from Africa and elsewhere. In practice, a lot of Gulf supply is already committed to East Asia through long-term contracts, and much is a lighter type than the “Urals” for which Indian refiners would be looking. Russia, meanwhile, would struggle for buyers. Chinese refiners could absorb more oil: the country’s leaders have shown they can retaliate successfully against Mr Trump’s tariffs, making them less vulnerable, but they also do not want to end up reliant on any single supplier.

如何这一切发生了，会怎样？首先，印度将迅速寻找新的石油供应来源。据一位交易员估计，印度的炼油商已经对俄罗斯的订单削减了40%到50%。理论上，中东国家拥有约每天350万桶的闲置产能，可以给印度提供额外支持，非洲及其他地区的产油国也可能助印度一臂之力。但现实是海湾地区的大量石油供应已经通过长期合同承包给东亚，而且这些石油多为轻质原油，与印度炼油商所需的重质原油类型不同。与此同时，俄罗斯也将面临买家难寻的困境。中国炼油企业或许可以消化更多俄罗斯石油：中国也已经证明，他们有能力成功反制特朗普，因此不那么脆弱；但同样也不希望过度依赖任何一个单一供应国。

Such analysis dictates that, were America to insist on immediate compliance, global oil prices would jump, perhaps to over $80 a barrel. Mr Trump could not countenance that for long. Very soon he might introduce waivers phasing in the restrictions over six months, allowing markets to adjust—a repeat of 2018-19, when soaring prices in the wake of Mr Trump’s sanctions against Iran forced America’s president to soften his approach. An oil glut is expected early next year, which might accommodate tough-but-phased-in Russian sanctions.

这表明，如果美国坚持要求各国立即遵守相关规定，全球油价将会飙升，可能突破每桶80美元。特朗普也不可能长期忍受这种局面。很快，他就会出台豁免政策，在六个月内逐步实施限制措施，让市场有时间进行调整——这也是2018至2019年的石油价格翻版：当时他因对伊朗实施制裁引发油价飙涨，最终不得不放软姿态。专业人士预计明年初，将出现石油供应过剩的情况，这或许可以为“强硬但分阶段实施”的俄罗斯制裁手段提供空间。

Given enough time, India would probably manage to replace most of its current Russian supply, albeit at a higher cost (Urals crude currently trades at a $5-10 discount to comparable grades). The margins of Indian refiners would be crushed. As they retreated from the market, the winners would be their Chinese rivals, which have been restocking fast in recent months, giving them plenty of firepower. Being less exposed to American sanctions, they would also continue to buy Russian crude—at a growing discount.

只要时间充足，印度大概率能够替代目前大部分来自俄罗斯的石油供应，尽管成本会更高（目前俄罗斯原油的价格比同类原油低5到10美元）。这会严重压缩印度炼油商的利润空间。当印度企业逐步退出市场时，真正的赢家将是他们的中国。中国炼油商近几个月迅速补充库存，手中掌握了充足的“反制火力”。由于他们受美国制裁的影响较小，也将继续购买俄罗斯原油——而且是越来越低的折扣价。

作者：经济学人        来源：一天一篇外刊