Kokang’s New Power Play: Economic Integration With China

果敢的新权力游戏：与中国的经济一体化

作者：Athena Awn Naw      来源：伊洛瓦底江

Cadre members attend the graduation ceremony of the 211th Brigade training course of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army on April 25, 2025. / Kokang Information Network

2025年4月25日，干部们参加缅甸民族民主联盟军211旅培训班毕业典礼。/果敢信息网

After securing control of at least 20 percent of northern Shan State, the Kokang armed group (the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA) is aiming to reopen key economic routes. As part of its broader economic vision, the group has begun issuing policy statements and publicly articulating its economic positions—to both China and local communities in the region.

果敢武装组织缅甸民族民主联盟军（Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army，简称MNDAA）在控制了掸邦北部至少20%的地区后，正打算重新开放主要的经济路线。作为其更广泛的经济愿景的一部分，该组织已经开始发布政策声明，并公开表达其对中国和该地区当地社区的经济立场。

Issued by the Kokang administration committee in Chinese in March 2025, the policy outlines priorities for economic development, technological and financial advancement, and principles of economic governance. The emphasis on legal trade, infrastructure and technology suggests a long-term plan for stability and legitimacy, while its focus on border trade and financial liberalization reflects a strong China-centric economic model.

果敢行政委员会于2025年3月用中文发布了该政策，概述了经济发展、技术和金融进步的优先事项，以及经济治理的原则。对合法贸易、基础设施和技术的重视表明了一个稳定和合法性的长期计划，而对边境贸易和金融自由化的关注反映了一个强大的以中国为中心的经济模式。

Among the ethnic armed groups (EAOs) that gained territorial control following Operation 1027, the Kokang group was the first to publicly unveil an economic policy. The MNDAA—one of the key actors behind Operation 1027—has introduced a distinct economic strategy, setting itself apart from other EAOs in northern Shan State along the China-Myanmar border that have long relied on illicit economies.

在1027行动后获得领土控制权的少数民族武装组织（eao）中，果敢组织是第一个公开公布经济政策的组织。作为1027行动背后的关键行动者之一，民盟采取了独特的经济战略，与中缅边境掸邦北部其他长期依赖非法经济的民盟组织区别开来。

The Kokang region was once known for activities such as drug trafficking, casinos, black market trade, unregulated smuggling, and, more recently, online scam networks—all of which historically funded and sustained the Kokang armed group’s operations. The newly introduced economic framework marks a significant departure from this legacy, signaling a shift toward formal economic governance and deeper integration with China.

果敢地区曾经以贩毒、赌场、黑市交易、不受管制的走私以及最近的在线诈骗网络等活动而闻名，所有这些活动历史上都为果敢武装组织的行动提供了资金和支持。新引入的经济框架标志着与这一传统的重大背离，标志着向正式经济治理的转变，以及与中国更深层次的融合。

Economic development as political strategy

经济发展作为政治战略

Kokang’s shift from an illicit to a more formalized economic model—likely shaped under Chinese influence—reflects a long-term vision for stability and political legitimacy. Border trade facilitation and financial liberalization further reinforce a China-centric economic orientation.

果敢从非法经济模式向更正式的经济模式的转变——可能是在中国的影响下形成的——反映了对稳定和政治合法性的长期愿景。边境贸易便利化和金融自由化进一步强化了以中国为中心的经济导向。

While presented in the language of “economic development,” the policy serves a broader political agenda: consolidating de facto sovereignty, establishing proto-state institutions, and positioning the Kokang region as a legitimate economic and political actor along the China-Myanmar frontier.

虽然以“经济发展”的语言提出，但该政策服务于更广泛的政治议程：巩固事实上的主权，建立原始国家机构，并将果敢地区定位为中缅边境沿线合法的经济和政治参与者。

Under its economic development priorities, the policy emphasizes cracking down on illegal industries, including online fraud, black markets, and illicit operations. Through state and private funding, it promotes infrastructure investment in transportation, energy, urban development, medical services, and digital infrastructure.

根据其经济发展重点，该政策强调打击非法行业，包括网络欺诈、黑市和非法经营。通过国家和私人资金，它促进了交通、能源、城市发展、医疗服务和数字基础设施方面的基础设施投资。

A major focus is the transformation of traditional agriculture through science and technology, shifting toward a more industrialized, large-scale, and intensive economy. Industrial development is geared toward environmentally friendly and labor-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, jade processing, tobacco, and the assembly and mass production of machinery, electric vehicles, clothing, and footwear.

重点是利用科技改造传统农业，向工业化、规模化、集约化方向发展。工业发展面向环境友好和劳动密集型部门，如制药、玉石加工、烟草以及机械、电动汽车、服装和鞋类的组装和批量生产。

An ethnic art delegation from the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, managed by the MNDAA, is seen at a China-Myanmar border gate on May 6, 2025 during their visit to China. / Kokang Information Network

2025年5月6日，在访问中国期间，来自果敢自治区的民族艺术代表团在中缅边境门口被看到。/果敢信息网

Emerging trade corridors 新兴贸易走廊

More importantly, the MNDAA has not overlooked the border economic cooperation zones, a key component of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This policy aims to enhance the trade environment by establishing fast and efficient channels, bulk commodity storage and transfer facilities, and developing “border economic cooperation zones” and bonded (free) zones. It seeks to expand import-export trade, improve cold chain logistics, and implement preferential policies to stimulate diverse and innovative forms of cross-border trade.

更重要的是，MNDAA并没有忽视边境经济合作区，这是中缅经济走廊（CMEC）的重要组成部分，是中国“一带一路”倡议的一部分。该政策旨在通过建立快速高效的通道、大宗商品储存和转运设施、发展“边境经济合作区”和保税区来改善贸易环境。扩大进出口贸易，完善冷链物流，实施优惠政策，促进跨境贸易形式多样化和创新。

Additionally, Kokang sits at a strategic crossroads of newly emerging international trade routes, including the International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC) and the China-Myanmar–Indian Ocean Rail-Road connectivity initiative under the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation framework. These routes pass directly through Chinshwehaw—now under MNDAA control—positioning it as a central hub along the China-Myanmar frontier.

此外，果敢位于新兴国际贸易路线的战略十字路口，包括国际陆海贸易走廊（ILSTC）和澜沧江-湄公河合作框架下的中缅印度洋铁路-公路互联互通倡议。这些路线直接穿过钦秀，现在在MNDAA的控制下，将其定位为中缅边境的中心枢纽。

These infrastructure and trade initiatives aim to connect the western regions of China, including Yunnan Province and its autonomous zone, to Southeast Asian markets via maritime trade routes like the Indian Ocean. As such, Kokang’s geographic position offers strategic value for China’s broader regional ambitions. The group now seeks to integrate the Kokang region into China’s geopolitical and regional development strategies, aiming to capitalize on these mega-projects for economic and political leverage.

这些基础设施和贸易倡议旨在通过印度洋等海上贸易路线，将中国西部地区（包括云南省及其自治区）与东南亚市场连接起来。因此，果敢的地理位置为中国更广泛的地区野心提供了战略价值。该集团目前正寻求将果敢地区纳入中国的地缘政治和地区发展战略，旨在利用这些大型项目获得经济和政治杠杆。

MNDAA’s current leadership not only actively supports the implementation of the CMEC but also appears to emulate China’s development model. Since Operation 1027, the group has taken steps to strengthen its control over key border checkpoints such as Chinshwehaw, not just as a gateway for trade but also as a point of influence over cross-border infrastructure and logistics. Control over these strategic trade routes and checkpoints is therefore not merely an economic move—it also carries significant geopolitical and political weight, reinforcing MNDAA’s ambitions toward greater autonomy and regional influence.

MNDAA目前的领导层不仅积极支持CMEC的实施，而且似乎也在效仿中国的发展模式。自1027行动以来，该组织已采取措施加强对钦秀肖等关键边境检查站的控制，钦秀肖不仅是贸易门户，也是对跨境基础设施和物流的影响点。因此，对这些战略贸易路线和检查站的控制不仅仅是一项经济举措——它还具有重要的地缘政治和政治分量，加强了MNDAA获得更大自治权和地区影响力的雄心。

During his Chinese New Year speech, MNDAA leader Peng Deren stated that the group would abide by China’s favorable policy of promoting peace and dialogue in Myanmar. He emphasized that the MNDAA would seize the opportunities presented by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), including supporting the implementation of major projects, expanding import and export trade, and accelerating the development of mineral resources.

孟民盟领导人彭德仁在春节致辞中表示，该组织将遵守中国在缅甸促进和平与对话的有利政策。他强调，MNDAA将抓住“一带一路”倡议带来的机遇，包括支持重大项目实施，扩大进出口贸易，加快矿产资源开发。

He stated that the Kokang Special Administrative Region (SAR) would fully implement an open-door economic policy.

他表示，果敢特别行政区将全面实施对外开放的经济政策。

Currently in Kokang, in areas such as Laukkai and Chinshwehaw, efforts have also focused on highway expansion projects and overall infrastructure improvements. Meanwhile, China has reopened some border gates, permitting limited exports and imports between the two sides. Currently, Laukkai is gradually returning to normalcy under the administration of the MNDAA. Recently, they also completed the renovating of Konlong Bridge, which is vital to China-Myanmar trade routes.

目前在果敢，在老街和钦秀等地区，努力也集中在公路扩建项目和整体基础设施改善上。与此同时，中国重新开放了一些边境大门，允许双方进行有限的进出口。目前，在民政部的管理下，劳会正逐步恢复正常。最近，他们还完成了对中缅贸易路线至关重要的孔龙桥的改造。

Resource exploitation 资源开发

Regarding mining, the group adopts a dual approach of utilization and integrated exploration, prioritizing actors with strong financial, technical and managerial capacity to secure mining rights.

在采矿方面，该集团采取利用和综合勘探的双重方法，优先考虑具有强大财政、技术和管理能力的行动者，以确保采矿权。

They list a range of non-metallic minerals, such as limestone, silica, barite, mountain sand, and river sand, and metallic minerals, including lead, zinc, copper, gold, silver and antimony.

他们列出了一系列非金属矿物，如石灰石、二氧化硅、重晶石、山砂和河砂，以及金属矿物，包括铅、锌、铜、金、银和锑。

What is particularly striking is the explicit mention that antimony—a globally recognized “critical mineral”—is found in the Kokang region, highlighting its strategic importance.

尤其引人注目的是，书中明确提到在果敢地区发现了锑——一种全球公认的“关键矿物”，突出了它的战略重要性。

This list of minerals is included in the Kokang economic policy and highlights their importance to China, based on data from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and relevant research papers.

这份矿产清单包含在果敢经济政策中，并根据中华人民共和国海关总署的数据和相关研究论文，突出了它们对中国的重要性。

Under its technological and financial development agenda, the Kokang administration is prioritizing investment in advanced digital infrastructure, including 5G networks, data centers, artificial intelligence and cloud computing. This is coupled with a push toward smart manufacturing and automation, signaling an ambition to modernize the local economy through high-tech industries. In the financial and insurance sectors, the policy encourages foreign investment in banking and insurance services, alongside efforts to establish a transparent and legally sound financial ecosystem.

果敢政府在其技术和金融发展议程中，优先投资于先进的数字基础设施，包括5G网络、数据中心、人工智能和云计算。这与推动智能制造和自动化相结合，表明了通过高科技产业实现当地经济现代化的雄心。在金融和保险领域，该政策鼓励外商投资银行和保险服务，同时努力建立一个透明和合法健全的金融生态系统。

Deepening ties with China

深化与中国的关系

The MNDAA’s economic blueprint reflects more than mere administrative planning; it is a calculated move to institutionalize governance and gain political legitimacy. The group is repositioning itself as a proto-state authority by reclaiming the Kokang region. This shift represents a potential template for other northern EAOs, who may emulate Kokang’s model to solidify their autonomy. In doing so, these groups collectively reinforce the political fragmentation of Myanmar, creating a network of semi-autonomous zones with independent economic and administrative systems.

MNDAA的经济蓝图反映的不仅仅是行政规划；这是一个经过深思熟虑的举措，目的是使治理制度化，并获得政治合法性。该组织通过收回果敢地区，将自己重新定位为一个原始的国家当局。这种转变为其他北方地区的自治区提供了一个潜在的模板，它们可能会效仿果敢的模式，以巩固自己的自治权。在这样做的过程中，这些集团共同加强了缅甸的政治分裂，创造了一个具有独立经济和行政制度的半自治区网络。

And the MNDAA’s policy shows clear alignment with China’s cross-border economic strategy, particularly its Yunnan-centric vision of border integration. This not only enhances Kokang’s appeal to Chinese investors—both private and state-backed—but also consolidates its role as a stable, investment-friendly gateway into Myanmar. While this deepens Kokang’s dependency on China for infrastructure, trade and capital, it also enhances its leverage. Control over key trade corridors and access to critical minerals, like antimony, make Kokang an indispensable actor in China’s regional ambitions, particularly its efforts to secure strategic supply chains and trade routes to the Indian Ocean.

MNDAA的政策明显符合中国的跨境经济战略，特别是以云南为中心的边境一体化愿景。这不仅提高了果敢对中国投资者的吸引力——无论是私人投资者还是国有投资者——而且巩固了果敢作为进入缅甸的稳定、投资友好门户的地位。虽然这加深了果敢在基础设施、贸易和资本方面对中国的依赖，但也增强了其影响力。对关键贸易走廊的控制，以及对锑等关键矿产的获取，使果敢在中国的地区野心中成为不可或缺的角色，尤其是在确保战略供应链和通往印度洋的贸易路线的努力中。

Another key element of the MNDAA’s policy is its focus on economic diversification, promoting sectors like high-tech agriculture, labor-intensive manufacturing and electric vehicle assembly to create civilian employment and reduce dependence on armed conflict. However, the rapid expansion of mining and industry without environmental safeguards risks ecological degradation and community displacement, which could provoke local resistance and undermine the MNDAA’s legitimacy.

MNDAA政策的另一个关键要素是其对经济多样化的关注，促进高科技农业、劳动密集型制造业和电动汽车组装等行业的发展，以创造平民就业机会，减少对武装冲突的依赖。然而，在没有环境保护的情况下，矿业和工业的快速扩张可能会导致生态退化和社区流离失所，这可能会引发当地的抵制，并破坏MNDAA的合法性。

Members of the MNDAA administration are seen at the entrance of Laukkai, capital of the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, on May 7, 2025, during a helmet enforcement campaign led by the Traffic Police Brigade of the MNDAA Police Department. / Kokang Information Network

2025年5月7日，果敢自治区首府老街入口处，在果敢自治区警察局交通警察大队领导的头盔强制执行活动中，MNDAA管理人员被看到。/果敢信息网

Political ambitions 政治野心

Since Operation 1027, the MNDAA’s ambitions appear to be expanding beyond traditional territorial control. Group leaders are now seeking formal political recognition—particularly in the realm of international relations—that goes beyond what Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution provides for self-administered zones. They see the previous framework of limited autonomy and ceasefire-based arrangements as no longer sufficient.

自1027行动以来，MNDAA的野心似乎已经超出了传统的领土控制范围。该组织领导人现在正在寻求正式的政治承认，尤其是在国际关系领域，这将超越缅甸2008年宪法对自治区域的规定。他们认为以前的有限自治框架和以停火为基础的安排已经不够了。

Prior to the operation, the Kokang group controlled just over 3 percent of northern Shan State. Today, its expanded presence—now covering at least 20 percent of the region—has strengthened its demands for a broader political settlement. Observers warn that without formal recognition, the MNDAA risks ending up like other powerful ethnic armed groups such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA) or Mong La—economically influential but politically marginalized. For example, the UWSA’s long-standing ambition to be recognized as a “state”, rather than merely a region, has been consistently ignored by the central government. If the military junta offers only profit-sharing arrangements without meaningful political agreements, the MNDAA may be limited to a role focused solely on trade, lacking the legitimacy it currently seeks.

在这次行动之前，果敢集团控制了掸邦北部略高于3%的地区。今天，其扩大的存在——现在至少覆盖了该地区的20%——加强了其对更广泛的政治解决的要求。观察人士警告说，如果没有得到正式承认，佤邦民族解放运动可能会像佤联军（UWSA）或bbbla等其他强大的民族武装组织一样，在经济上有影响力，但在政治上被边缘化。例如，佤联军长期以来一直希望被承认为一个“国家”，而不仅仅是一个地区，但一直被中央政府忽视。如果军政府只提供利润分享安排，而不提供有意义的政治协议，那么MNDAA可能仅限于一个专注于贸易的角色，缺乏其目前寻求的合法性。

The coming months will reveal whether Myanmar’s military rulers are willing to engage in deeper political negotiations—or whether Kokang’s territorial gains will translate into little more than an expanded footprint in an unrecognized and fragile economy.

接下来的几个月将会揭示缅甸的军事统治者是否愿意进行更深入的政治谈判，或者果敢的领土收益是否会转化为在一个不被承认和脆弱的经济中扩大的足迹。

If successful, Kokang’s model could deliver significant economic benefits, improved transparency, and greater connectivity, attracting businesses that prioritize efficiency over political alignment. For instance, Hsenwi has recently seen a surge of Chinese businesses seeking to invest along the China-Myanmar corridor.  If Kokang succeeds in securing the type of political agreement it seeks with the military regime—while fully integrating into China’s economic system—it could gain the level of recognition it desires from the Chinese side. Notably, unlike the Wa and Mong La, the MNDAA appears positioned to attain a higher degree of political recognition. This trend could further fragment the already divided Myanmar-China border region into a patchwork of economically autonomous zones, each increasingly integrated with neighboring countries, especially China.

如果成功，果敢的模式可以带来巨大的经济效益，提高透明度，加强连通性，吸引优先考虑效率而不是政治联盟的企业。例如，Hsenwi最近看到寻求在中缅走廊投资的中国企业激增。如果果敢能成功地与军政府达成政治协议，同时完全融入中国的经济体系，那么果敢就能获得中国方面的认可。值得注意的是，与佤联军和佤联军不同，佤联军似乎有能力获得更高程度的政治认可。这一趋势可能会进一步将已经分裂的中缅边境地区分裂成一个个经济自治区，每个自治区都与邻国，尤其是中国日益融合。

However, growing dependence on Chinese investment and political support poses strategic risks. Any shift in Beijing’s priorities could destabilize these emerging governance models. The MNDAA’s push for economic federalism not only challenges the authority of the central state but also reflects Myanmar’s fragmented political landscape—offering both opportunities and risks for the country’s federal future.

然而，对中国投资和政治支持的日益依赖构成了战略风险。北京方面在优先事项上的任何转变都可能破坏这些新兴治理模式的稳定。MNDAA对经济联邦制的推动不仅挑战了中央政府的权威，也反映了缅甸支离破碎的政治格局——这为该国的联邦未来提供了机遇和风险。

Ultimately, Kokang’s economic transformation could trigger a strategic recalibration of power and sovereignty, reshaping conflict dynamics and redefining the contours of China-Myanmar relations.

最终，果敢的经济转型可能引发权力和主权的战略调整，重塑冲突动态，重新定义中缅关系的轮廓。

Athena Awn Naw specializes in analyzing ethnic conflict dynamics in Myanmar, focusing on China’s expanding influence across economic sectors. Her expertise includes the socioeconomic impacts of China’s involvement, its role in Myanmar’s armed conflicts and peace processes, and its participation in regional initiatives.

Athena Awn Naw专门分析缅甸的种族冲突动态，关注中国在经济领域不断扩大的影响力。她的专长包括中国参与的社会经济影响，中国在缅甸武装冲突与和平进程中的作用，以及中国在地区倡议中的参与。

作者：Athena Awn Naw             来源：伊洛瓦底江