Lashio’s Quiet Exit: Inside the MNDAA Withdrawal

腊戌的安静退出：MNDAA撤军内幕

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社         来源：掸邦先驱新闻社

Roundabout in Lashio township.

腊戍乡环岛。

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as the Kokang Army, is reportedly preparing to withdraw from Lashio, Shan State, under pressure from China. According to local residents, the withdrawal must be completed by April 17, Myanmar New Year’s Day, following the Thingyan festival.

据报道，在中国的压力下，缅甸民族民主联盟军（MNDAA），也被称为果敢军，正准备从掸邦腊戍撤军。据当地居民说，撤离必须在4月17日缅甸新年之前完成。

Although the MNDAA and the military council met for talks in Kunming, China, on March 22 with Chinese mediation, no formal agreement was reached. Nonetheless, reports suggest the MNDAA will begin handing control of Lashio back to the military council after the Thingyan holiday.

尽管同盟军和军事委员会在中国的调解下于3月22日在中国昆明举行了会谈，但没有达成正式协议。尽管如此，有报道称，缅甸国防军将在春节假期后开始将腊戍的控制权交还给军事委员会。

Since early March, large groups of Kokang troops have been seen moving from Lashio to Hsenwi, raising concerns that the withdrawal may occur in phases through June, as previously speculated.

自3月初以来，大批果敢部队被看到从腊戍迁往森维，这让人们担心，果敢部队可能会像之前猜测的那样，在6月份分阶段撤离。

SHAN reporter Sai Khwan Murng spoke with a resident of Lashio, who requested anonymity for security reasons, to understand the situation on the ground.

SHAN记者Sai Khwan Murng采访了腊戍的一名居民，以了解当地的情况。出于安全原因，该居民要求匿名。

Q: What is the current status of the MNDAA’s withdrawal from Lashio?

问：国防部从腊戍撤出的现状如何？

A: From what we can see, the MNDAA is fully prepared to leave. It’s practically a done deal. We’ve heard that the military council’s administrative offices will be the first to return, starting with general administration, followed by immigration, education, and healthcare. The State Administration Council (SAC) will gradually reestablish its presence.

答：从目前情况看，同盟军已经做好了撤离准备。这几乎是板上钉钉的事了。我们听说军事委员会的行政办公室将首先返回，从一般行政开始，然后是移民、教育和医疗。国家行政管理委员会（SAC）将逐步恢复其存在。

However, this applies only to the city center, wards 1 through 12, which are the main residential areas. Surrounding regions are expected to remain under MNDAA control, at least for now.

然而，这只适用于市中心，1至12区，这是主要的住宅区。预计周边地区仍将由MNDAA控制，至少目前如此。

The military hasn’t re-entered yet, but there are reports that troops will be stationed near Hsenwi (Hopuek Village), Mong Yaw (near the 68th Military Base), Manaing (Ward 5), and parts of Hsipaw and Namtu. The Kokang forces are likely to maintain control of the bypass road area.

军队尚未重新进入，但有报道称，军队将驻扎在Hsenwi （Hopuek村），孟Yaw（第68军事基地附近），Manaing（第5区）以及Hsipaw和Namtu的部分地区。果敢部队很可能继续控制绕行公路地区。

I think the military will reoccupy the city center, but not with the same scale as before. Their presence will be more limited, nothing like when the Northeastern Command was based here. There’s also talk that the MNDAA will retain a liaison office in Lashio, and China may even open a consulate. Rumors suggest China or the Wa Army (UWSA) may partner with the military to offer services like healthcare, but nothing has been confirmed.

我认为军队会重新占领市中心，但规模不会像以前那么大。他们的存在将更加有限，不像东北司令部驻扎在这里那样。也有消息称，民政部将在腊戍保留联络处，中国甚至可能在腊戍开设领事馆。有传言称，中国或佤联军（UWSA）可能会与军方合作，提供医疗等服务，但没有得到证实。

Q: Some believe the MNDAA is withdrawing due to Chinese pressure and to avoid airstrikes. What’s your view?

问：一些人认为，同盟军是迫于中方压力，为避免空袭而撤离的。你怎么看？

A: Most people just want fairness. Whether it’s the military or the MNDAA, we want to be treated with dignity. But let’s be honest, Chinese influence is a major factor, and so is the threat of airstrikes.

A：大多数人只是想要公平。无论是军队还是同盟军，我们都希望得到有尊严的对待。但说实话，中国的影响是一个主要因素，（军政府）空袭的威胁也是一个主要因素。

As someone who’s lived through decades of conflict in northern Shan, I know these armed groups have always had to compromise. It’s not just about Operation 1027. Historically, no ethnic force has been able to openly defy China as they’ve always had to listen.

作为一个在掸邦北部经历了几十年冲突的人，我知道这些武装组织总是不得不妥协。不仅仅是1027行动。从历史上看，没有任何民族力量能够公开反抗中国，因为他们总是不得不倾听。

People were aware the military had air power. So why wasn’t there better preparation? Why didn’t they anticipate Chinese pressure or the risk of bombings? There doesn’t seem to have been a solid plan, and now it’s civilians who are paying the price. Houses have been destroyed, people are displaced, and some escaped war only to die in floods or earthquakes later.

人们意识到军队拥有空中力量。那么为什么没有更好的准备呢？为什么他们没有预料到中国的压力或（军政府）轰炸的风险？似乎没有一个可靠的计划，现在是平民在付出代价。房屋被毁，人们流离失所，一些逃离战争的人后来却死于洪水或地震。

We’re exhausted by this endless back-and-forth. It feels like a volleyball game: one side spikes, the other blocks, and we, the people, are stuck in the middle. This chaos was predictable. If there wasn’t a plan to manage the consequences, perhaps the offensive shouldn’t have happened at all.

我们被这种没完没了的反反复复搞得筋疲力尽。这感觉就像一场排球比赛：一边钉球，另一边挡球，而我们，作为人，被夹在中间。这种混乱是可以预见的。如果没有一个计划来管理后果，也许进攻根本就不应该发生。

Lashio is now in a state of lawlessness. People have fled, and looting has increased. The cost to civilians has been devastating.

腊戍现在处于无法无天的状态。人们纷纷逃离，抢劫事件有所增加。平民的损失是毁灭性的。

MNDAA soldiers at Northeast Command.

MNDAA士兵在东北司令部。

Q: What kinds of protections should be in place for the people now that SAC is returning and the MNDAA is leaving?

问：在SAC（国管委）回归、MNDAA退出的情况下，应该为人们提供什么样的保护？

A: This is crucial. Many residents worked under the MNDAA rule, not out of loyalty, but because they had no choice. Health workers, security guards, and others: they did what they had to do in order to survive.

A：这很关键。许多居民在MNDAA的规定下工作，不是出于忠诚，而是因为他们别无选择。卫生工作者、保安人员和其他人员：他们做了为了生存必须做的事情。

Some former officials fled during the fighting, and those who stayed had to step up and keep basic services running. What guarantees do they have now? Will they be punished?

一些前官员在战斗中逃离，留下来的人不得不加紧工作，维持基本服务的运行。他们现在有什么保证？他们会受到惩罚吗？

Even Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) members and teachers are quietly returning not because they support the SAC, but because they feel stuck. If we ignore their situation, it’s as if the MNDAA is being erased from the political record and honestly, and that’s already happening.

即使是公民不服从运动（CDM）的成员和教师也在悄悄地返回，不是因为他们支持SAC，而是因为他们感到被困住了。如果我们忽视他们的处境，就好像MNDAA正在从政治记录中被抹去，老实说，这已经发生了。

Q: What should CDM staff or those who worked with the MNDAA do if the SAC returns, should they stay or relocate?

问：如果SAC回国，CDM工作人员或与MNDAA合作的人员应该怎么做，他们应该留下来还是重新安置？

A: Some say those who support the MNDAA can leave with them. But that’s easier said than done. People have homes, families, and property. They can’t just pack up and leave. That’s why we need guarantees.

答：有人说那些支持MNDAA的人可以和他们一起离开。但说起来容易做起来难。人们有住房、家庭和财产。他们不能就这么打包走人。这就是为什么我们需要保证。

The SAC shouldn’t punish or interrogate those who worked for the MNDAA. They should be protected, not arrested. A firm commitment is needed to ensure safety.

SAC不应该惩罚或审问那些为MNDAA工作的人。他们应该受到保护，而不是逮捕。确保安全需要坚定的承诺。

Q: Public services improved significantly during the MNDAA’s control. What happens now?

问：在MNDAA控制期间，公共服务得到了显著改善。现在发生了什么？

A: This is a heartbreaking issue. The MNDAA’s influence in Lashio is now minimal. But they take the Lashio General Hospital and it belongs to the public. It’s neither private nor military property.

A：这是一个令人心碎的问题。MNDAA在腊戍的影响力现在微乎其微。但他们拿走了腊戍总医院，它属于公众。它既不是私人财产也不是军事财产。

The hospital had advanced equipment, much of them were donated by NGOs and individuals, including major support from Japan around 2010–2011. But now the MNDAA has taken nearly everything including medical devices, school equipment, even transformers and meters.

该医院拥有先进的设备，其中大部分是由非政府组织和个人捐赠的，其中包括日本在2010-2011年前后的主要支持。但是现在MNDAA已经拿走了几乎所有的东西，包括医疗设备，学校设备，甚至变压器和仪表。

EPC staff begged them not to strip everything bare. People pleaded, “Please leave something behind.” But almost nothing was spared. If the SAC takes over, it will be a disaster for public services. They’ve never shown a real commitment to healthcare or education. Equipment won’t be replaced, and even basic services will suffer.

EPC的工作人员恳求他们不要把所有的东西都剥光。人们恳求道：“请留下点东西。”但几乎无一幸免。如果SAC接管，对公共服务将是一场灾难。他们从未对医疗或教育做出过真正的承诺。设备不会被替换，甚至基本服务也会受到影响。

The MNDAA says it fights the military, not the people. But actions like this such as taking public property raise serious questions.

MNDAA表示，他们对抗的是军队，而不是人民。但是像这样的行为，比如侵占公共财产，引发了严重的问题。

Q: Is the MNDAA’s exit a result of Chinese pressure, or a diplomatic victory for the military council? How do you see the future of armed conflict in Northern Shan State?

问：MNDAA的退出是迫于中方压力的结果，还是军事委员会的外交胜利？你如何看待掸邦北部武装冲突的未来？

A: Since the 2021 coup, central Myanmar has seen new forces emerge like the NUG and PDF leading to unprecedented battles. The SAC remains in power, and the NUG operates in parallel. Both are under international scrutiny.

答：自2021年政变以来，缅甸中部出现了民革联、民阵等新势力，引发了前所未有的战争。SAC仍然掌权，NUG并行运作。两者都受到国际社会的密切关注。

Operation 1027 exposed major cracks among the so-called dictators. The NUG couldn’t unify the ethnic armed groups, and many PDFs operate independently. Corruption and disorganization, especially among diaspora leadership are growing problems.

1027行动暴露了所谓独裁者之间的重大裂痕。NUG无法统一各民族武装组织，许多pdf都是独立运作的。腐败和组织混乱，特别是在散居海外的领导层中，是日益严重的问题。

Northern Shan saw perhaps the most success during Operation 1027, but even then, full control wasn’t achieved. Towns like Muse, Mongyai, and Tangyan remain contested. Ethnic groups even clashed among themselves, forcing civilians to flee. Fighting between Kokang, Palaung, and Kachin forces only undermines trust.

北掸邦可能在1027行动中取得了最大的成功，但即便如此，也没有实现完全控制。像木姐、孟崖和当阳这样的城镇仍然存在争议。少数民族之间甚至发生冲突，迫使平民逃离。果敢、德昂和克钦军队之间的战斗只会破坏信任。

If Min Aung Hlaing keeps attending regional meetings, he may even be reintegrated into ASEAN. The revolution is fracturing between ethnic forces, PDFs, and the NUG. Unity remains elusive.

如果敏昂莱继续参加地区会议，他甚至可能重新融入东盟。这场革命在少数民族力量、pdf和NUG之间分裂。统一仍然难以捉摸。

If the armed groups in Shan had truly united, Wa, RCSS, SSPP, Palaung, Kokang, Pa-O, Lahu, they could have changed the game. But dishonesty and mistrust, built over 70 years, continue to drag us down.

如果掸邦，佤邦、掸邦民盟、掸邦人民解放军、帕朗、果敢、帕奥、拉胡的武装团体真正团结起来，他们可能会改变游戏规则。但70多年来形成的不诚实和不信任，继续拖累着我们。

Q: Anything else you’d like to add?

问：你还有什么要补充的吗？

A: If we truly want to defeat the military council, unity is essential. We need to move beyond power struggles and territorial control. As long as greed and lies dominate our politics, we’ll continue betraying each other—just like we’ve done for decades.

A：如果我们真的要打败军事委员会，团结是必要的。我们需要超越权力斗争和领土控制。只要贪婪和谎言主宰着我们的政治，我们就会继续相互背叛——就像我们几十年来所做的那样。

作者：掸邦先驱新闻社         来源：掸邦先驱新闻社