译者按：1027行动开展一周年，美联社于10月28日发表文章，总结了一年来缅军和民族武装之间的战斗，并对缅军垮台后缅甸会呈现什么样的场景做了分析。

(资料图，7月25日，人民防卫军在抹谷镇占领缅军一个营地后合影)

Myanmar’s civil war reshaped in past year with coordinated offensive by powerful resistance groups

过去一年，抵抗组织协同进攻，改写了缅甸内战格局

BANGKOK (AP) — Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country.

美联社曼谷消息，一年前，三支装备精良的武装组织在缅甸东北部发动了一场出人意料的联合攻势，打破了与缅政权军的战略僵局，迅速占领了大片领土。受此激励，其他武装也在全国各地发动攻击。

Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and another country. But today it is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders concede will be challenging to regain.

在进攻之前，缅军凭借其在兵力和火力方面的巨大优势，以及俄罗斯和另一个国家的物资支持，似乎牢牢控制着局势。但如今，军方越来越处于劣势，失去了数十个哨所、基地和战略城镇，甚至连缅军领导人都承认，要重新夺回这些城镇将面临挑战。

How did the offensive unfold?

进攻是如何展开的？

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, giving rise to intensified fighting with long-established armed groups associated with Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups, and sparking the formation of new pro-democracy militias.

2021年2月，缅军从昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)当选政府手中夺取了政权，结果，缅军与长期存在的缅甸少数民团体的武装组织之间的战斗加剧，并引发了支持民主的新武装团体的成立。

But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.

但直到1027行动(因10月27日开始而得名)启动之前，被称为国防军的缅军基本上有能力在缅甸全国防止遭受重大损失。

Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, together known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance — and they were able to quickly capture towns and overrun military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.

1027行动中，三个最强大的民族武装团体，即缅甸民族民主同盟军、若开军和德昂民族解放军，统称为三兄弟联盟，他们协同攻击，迅速占领了掸邦东北部中国边境沿线的城镇，并占领了军事基地和哨所。

Two weeks later the Arakan Army launched attacks in its home western state of Rakhine, and since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country.

两周后，若开军在其西部的若开邦也发动了袭击，自此，其他武装组织和人民防卫军也加入了全国各地的战斗。

A year later into the offensive, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory that reaches from Rakhine state in the west, across the north, and then south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back toward the center around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.

一年后，抵抗力量现在完全或部分控制了一大片呈马蹄形的领土——从西部的若开邦到缅北，再到南部泰国边境的克耶邦和克伦邦。缅军已经撤退到首都内比都和最大城市仰光附近的中心地带。

What comes next?

接下来会发生什么？

Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered with the influx of some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its continued complete air superiority. But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city in the center of the country.

许多人预计，缅甸军方将在雨季即将结束时发动反攻，自2月份启动征兵制以来，缅军又新增了约3万名士兵，并继续保持空中优势。但与此同时，抵抗组织正在逼近缅甸中部第二大城市曼德勒。

Facing threats from all around the country, “it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group.

缅甸倡议组织“特别顾问委员会”的康纳·麦克唐纳(Connor Macdonald)表示，面对来自全国各地的威胁，“军方似乎没有任何可行的途径来夺回失去的任何领土。”

“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then is vulnerable in other parts,” he said.

麦克唐纳说：“军方在全国各地都处于守势，每次将精力投入到缅甸的某个地区时，基本上都必须转移部队，这样，其他地区则容易受到攻击。”

What has happened to Myanmar’s civilian population?

缅甸平民发生了什么？

As the military has faced setbacks in the fighting on the ground, it has been increasingly relying on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations’ Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

根据联合国人权事务高级专员办事处上个月发布的一份报告，由于缅军在地面战斗中遭遇失败，缅军越来越依赖无差别空袭和炮击，导致自1027行动开始以来，空袭造成的平民死亡人数增加了95%，炮击造成的平民死亡人数增加了170%。

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians in retribution for perceived support for the resistance militias, something it denies.

缅军被指控故意针对平民，以报复他们对抵抗武装的支持，但缅军对此予以否认。

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar overall, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the U.N.

据联合国统计，缅甸有数十万平民因战争而流离失所，目前缅甸境内流离失所者总数超过300万，约有1860万人需要帮助。

What happens if the military regime falls?

如果军政权倒台会发生什么？

As the front has expanded it has seen militias advancing out of their own ethnic areas, like when Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January seized the Chin town of Paletwa, which has given rise to some friction between groups — foreshadowing possible future problems should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.

随着战线的扩大，武装组织开始从他们的本族地区挺进，例如，今年1月，位于若开邦的若开军占领了钦族城镇百力瓦(Paletwa)，这导致各族群之间产生了一些摩擦——这预示着：如果缅军最终倒台，未来可能会出现问题。

At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the disparate ethnic groups with the focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank said that does not translate to common aspirations.

目前，不同族群之间有一定程度的团结，共同面对敌人，但一家名为“缅甸战略与政策研究所”(Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar)智库的联络部主任昂杜年(Aung Thu Nyein)表示，这并不意味着他们有共同的愿望。

Should the Tatmadaw fall, that could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

如果缅军倒台，除非各族群努力解决政治和领土分歧，否则缅甸将分裂。

“The resistance being able to bring down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario,” he said. “If we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the scenario of Syria.”

昂杜年说：“抵抗力量推翻军政府的可能性不大，但不能排除这种可能性。如果我们不能建立信任和共同目标，就可能出现叙利亚的情况。”